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The latest Bet Better model pick for Josh Rachele is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 69 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 69%, implied 80%, edge +2.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:55AM UTC
AFL

Josh Rachele

Adelaide Crows

+2.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -400 (1.25) · $100→$125
+2.0% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
82 in 100
Predicted
13.1 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 82.0% · the book's price implies 80.0% · gap +2.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals82.0%68.6%80.0%1.46+2.0%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Josh Rachele Over 9.5 Disposals (-400)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Brisbane Lions face off against Adelaide Crows, and Josh Rachele can really make an impact in this game. Our numbers show he has been getting a lot of clearances, which helps him rack up disposals. With a solid chance to go over 9.5 disposals, he's been hitting that mark more often than not lately. But given Rachele's recent performance and the way he has been getting the ball, this bet looks promising. Just remember, there are no guarantees in sports, but Rachele seems ready to shine.

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Pick History & Track Record

Josh Rachele's lines for Sat 12 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Disposals 9.5
How many disposals does Josh Rachele average?

Josh Rachele's disposals line is 9.5.

Disposals 10.5
How many disposals does Josh Rachele average?

Josh Rachele's disposals line is 10.5.

Tackles 1.5
How many disposals does Josh Rachele average?

Josh Rachele's tackles line is 1.5.

Marks 1.5
How many disposals does Josh Rachele average?

Josh Rachele's marks line is 1.5.

Goals 0.5
How many disposals does Josh Rachele average?

Josh Rachele's goals line is 0.5.

Season averages (2024)

Josh Rachele averaged 14.1 disposals, 1.4 goals and 3.6 marks per game across 22 games in 2024.

14.1
Disposals
1.4
Goals
3.6
Marks
2.3
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Josh Rachele has cleared 9.5 disposals in 70% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.570%
o10.560%
o11.570%
o12.550%
o13.540%
o14.530%
o16.530%
o17.510%
o18.50%
o19.50%
o20.510%
o21.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Josh Rachele is averaging 11.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

11.4
Disp · Overall
1.8
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (17 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Josh Rachele recorded 10 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
17 Aug 24Port Adelaide10122
11 Aug 24Western Bulldogs10254
3 Aug 24Geelong Cats14375
28 Jul 24Hawthorn13131
19 Jul 24Essendon12313
13 Jul 24St Kilda13114
7 Jul 24Brisbane Lions12021
29 Jun 24GWS GIANTS18242
15 Jun 24Sydney Swans10116
6 Jun 24Richmond12271
Quick answers:How many disposals does Josh Rachele average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 9.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 10.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Tackles 1.5 Over -167 ✗ MISS
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Marks — — — Pending
14 Aug 26 Adelaide Crows @ Fremantle Dockers Goals — — — Pending
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Josh Rachele (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Josh Rachele is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.0% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 12 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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