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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jaspa Fletcher is Over 11.5 on Kicks.
On Kicks, our numbers say this bet wins about 59 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 59%, implied 65%, edge +5.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:56AM UTC
AFL

Jaspa Fletcher

Brisbane Lions

+5.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Kicks Over 11.5 -182 (1.55) · $100→$155
+5.8% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
70 in 100
Predicted
13.8 Kicks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 70.4% · the book's price implies 64.5% · gap +5.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Kicks70.4%58.8%64.5%1.70+5.8%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Jaspa Fletcher Over 11.5 Kicks (-182)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

The Brisbane Lions face a tough challenge from the Adelaide Crows, especially when it comes to Jaspa Fletcher's performance. Fletcher has been racking up contested marks and one-on-ones, showing he knows how to fight for the ball. With his average kicking stats being higher than usual, it looks good for him to hit over 11.5 kicks in this game. However, the Crows are known for their tough defense, which could make things tricky for Fletcher. Still, with the way he's been playing lately, our numbers suggest he has a strong chance to get those kicks. It should be an exciting matchup, and I'm feeling hopeful about this pick!

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Pick History & Track Record

Jaspa Fletcher's lines for Sat 12 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Kicks 11.5
How many disposals does Jaspa Fletcher average?

Jaspa Fletcher's kicks line is 11.5.

Season averages (2024)

Jaspa Fletcher averaged 14.6 disposals, 0.2 goals and 4.9 marks per game across 27 games in 2024.

14.6
Disposals
0.2
Goals
4.9
Marks
1.9
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Jaspa Fletcher has cleared 12.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o12.5100%
o13.5100%
o15.590%
o16.570%
o18.570%
o19.570%
o21.550%
o23.520%
o24.510%
o26.520%
o27.50%
o29.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Jaspa Fletcher is averaging 19.2 disposals per game over his last 5.

19.2
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Jaspa Fletcher recorded 18 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans18071
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats17071
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS13131
7 Sep 24Carlton9031
24 Aug 24Essendon15051
17 Aug 24Collingwood19046
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS12041
4 Aug 24St Kilda19174
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS13023
21 Jul 24Sydney Swans10040
Quick answers:How many disposals does Jaspa Fletcher average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Kicks 11.5 Over -233 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jaspa Fletcher (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jaspa Fletcher is Over 11.5 on Kicks. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.8% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 12 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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