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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jarrod Witts is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 74%, implied 71%, edge +2.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:46AM UTC
AFL

Jarrod Witts

Gold Coast SUNS

+2.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -250 (1.40) · $100→$140
+2.6% Edge
Gold Coast Suns @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 13 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 12°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
12.7 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 74.1% · the book's price implies 71.4% · gap +2.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals74.1%—71.4%1.35+2.6%

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AI Analysis

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Jarrod Witts (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 9.5 Disposals (-250)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jarrod Witts is poised to shine against the Brisbane Lions, exceeding 9.5 disposals. His recent form indicates a solid average of 15.4 disposals in away games, supported by impressive contested possessions (10.6) and disposal efficiency (61.1%). Witts' consistency is evident with a perfect hit streak in his last 7 away matches and a flawless 16/16 overall hit rate. Facing the Lions, he has historically outperformed both his away (9 disposals) and overall (9.8 disposals) averages. With a model predicting him to reach 12.7 disposals and a 2.6% edge, Witts is a strong bet to continue his stellar performance, making the Over 9.5 disposals a compelling choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Jarrod Witts averaged 13.9 disposals, 0.5 goals and 2.4 marks per game across 16 games in 2024.

13.9
Disposals
0.5
Goals
2.4
Marks
3.9
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Richmond), Jarrod Witts recorded 19 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Richmond19123
17 Aug 24Melbourne8214
10 Aug 24Essendon14033
2 Aug 24West Coast Eagles21164
27 Jul 24Brisbane Lions7133
29 Jun 24Collingwood19032
23 Jun 24Fremantle13034
25 May 24Carlton14124
11 May 24North Melbourne10125
5 May 24Brisbane Lions6011
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Jarrod Witts (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jarrod Witts is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.6% on this pick. Their next game is Gold Coast Suns vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 13 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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