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The latest Bet Better model pick for James O'Donnell is Over 3.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 65 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 65%, implied 77%, edge +0.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:45AM UTC
AFL

James O'Donnell

Western Bulldogs

+0.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 3.5 -333 (1.30) · $100→$130
+0.6% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sat 5 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
78 in 100
Predicted
5.2 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 77.6% · the book's price implies 76.9% · gap +0.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks77.6%65.3%76.9%1.53+0.6%

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AI Analysis

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Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs: James O'Donnell Over 3.5 Marks (-333)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

At the Adelaide Oval, James O'Donnell has been performing really well lately. He usually makes about 10 marks per game, which is way above the typical number of 4.8. This shows he's been a key part of his team's game plan, and with the way he's playing, he should easily surpass the 3.5 mark target. The biggest concern is that both teams are pretty evenly matched, and that can sometimes lead to unexpected outcomes. Still, given O'Donnell's strong recent form, it seems like a good chance he'll get those marks. It's not a guarantee, but the signs point towards him having a solid game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Season averages (2024)

James O'Donnell averaged 11.2 disposals, 0.1 goals and 4.4 marks per game across 14 games in 2024.

11.2
Disposals
0.1
Goals
4.4
Marks
1.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (6 Sep 24 vs Hawthorn), James O'Donnell recorded 11 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
6 Sep 24Hawthorn11051
25 Aug 24GWS GIANTS11022
18 Aug 24North Melbourne17090
6 Jul 24Port Adelaide3001
29 Jun 24North Melbourne9052
15 Jun 24Fremantle15062
7 Jun 24Brisbane Lions8240
31 May 24Collingwood11071
18 May 24GWS GIANTS9032
11 May 24Richmond21053
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Marks 3.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
28 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs Marks 3.5 Over -278 ✓ HIT
28 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs Marks 2.5 Over -833 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

James O'Donnell (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for James O'Donnell is Over 3.5 on Marks. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.6% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide Crows on Saturday 5 September at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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