Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Izak Rankine is Over 3.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 70 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 70%, implied 69%, edge +0.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:56AM UTC
AFL
Izak Rankine
Adelaide Crows
Latest Model Pick
Marks
Over 3.5
-227 (1.44) · $100→$144
+0.9% Edge
Adelaide Crows
@
Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
70 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 70.3% · the book's price implies 69.4% · gap +0.9%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Marks | 70.3% | — | 69.4% | 1.42 | +0.9% |
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Izak Rankine (Adelaide Crows) Over 3.5 player_marks_over (-227)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
Brisbane Lions play Adelaide Crows in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Izak Rankine (Adelaide Crows) Over 3.5 player_marks_over. It was priced at -227 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Izak Rankine's lines for Sat 12 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Marks 3.5
Izak Rankine's marks line is 3.5.
Season averages (2024)
Izak Rankine averaged 18.0 disposals, 1.9 goals and 3.2 marks per game across 15 games in 2024.
Hit-rate ladder: Disposals
Izak Rankine has cleared 20.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.
o20.590%
o21.560%
o23.580%
o25.570%
o26.570%
o28.530%
o30.550%
o31.540%
o33.540%
o35.520%
o36.510%
o38.510%
Home / away and opponent splits
Izak Rankine is averaging 33.4 disposals per game over his last 5.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (17 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Izak Rankine recorded 8 disposals and 2 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 17 Aug 24 | Port Adelaide | 8 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 Aug 24 | Western Bulldogs | 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 Jul 24 | Brisbane Lions | 16 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 29 Jun 24 | GWS GIANTS | 27 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
| 15 Jun 24 | Sydney Swans | 18 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| 18 May 24 | Collingwood | 30 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 May 24 | Brisbane Lions | 24 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 2 May 24 | Port Adelaide | 11 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 27 Apr 24 | North Melbourne | 17 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 19 Apr 24 | Essendon | 12 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
Izak Rankine (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Izak Rankine is Over 3.5 on Marks. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.9% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 12 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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