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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Francis Evans is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 68 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 68%, implied 83%, edge +5.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:06AM UTC
AFL

Francis Evans

Carlton

+5.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -500 (1.20) · $100→$120
+5.5% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 4 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
89 in 100
Predicted
13.4 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 88.8% · the book's price implies 83.3% · gap +5.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals88.8%68.5%83.3%1.46+5.5%

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AI Analysis

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Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues: Francis Evans Over 9.5 Disposals (-500)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

For Francis Evans to get more than 9.5 disposals tonight, he'll need to be active and involved in the game. The Geelong Cats have been getting it inside 50 a lot more than their opponents, which means there will be plenty of opportunities for him to touch the ball. Plus, the Cats have been scoring well lately, which often leads to players getting more chances to rack up disposals. Carlton has been strong lately, winning 8 of their last 10 games, so they'll put up a good fight. The risk here is that Geelong's contested ball stats are pretty even, which could limit their players' chances. Still, with the way Geelong plays at home, Evans is likely to find a way to hit that mark.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 9 of last 10(90%)

Season averages (2024)

Francis Evans averaged 7.6 disposals, 0.5 goals and 2.1 marks per game across 17 games in 2024.

7.6
Disposals
0.5
Goals
2.1
Marks
2.4
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (20 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Francis Evans recorded 2 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
20 Sep 24Sydney Swans2001
13 Sep 24Hawthorn5022
5 Sep 24Geelong Cats6026
25 Aug 24Fremantle5115
17 Aug 24Adelaide Crows8201
10 Aug 24Melbourne6012
3 Aug 24Sydney Swans11261
26 Jul 24Carlton13014
20 Jul 24Richmond13134
14 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS18183
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals 9.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals 11.5 Over -189 ✗ MISS
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals 10.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Goals Pending
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals Pending
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Francis Evans (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Francis Evans is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.5% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats on Friday 4 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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