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The latest Bet Better model pick for Darcy Wilmot is Over 69.5 on Fantasy.
On Fantasy, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 72%, implied 68%, edge +3.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:56AM UTC
AFL

Darcy Wilmot

Brisbane Lions

+3.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Fantasy Over 69.5 -217 (1.46) · $100→$146
+3.9% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
82.3 Fantasy
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 72.3% · the book's price implies 68.5% · gap +3.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Fantasy72.3%—68.5%1.38+3.9%

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AI Analysis

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Darcy Wilmot (Brisbane Lions) Over 69.5 player_afl_fantasy_points_over (-217)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Brisbane Lions play Adelaide Crows in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Darcy Wilmot (Brisbane Lions) Over 69.5 player_afl_fantasy_points_over. It was priced at -217 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.60 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Pick History & Track Record

Darcy Wilmot's lines for Sat 12 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Fantasy 69.5
How many disposals does Darcy Wilmot average?

Darcy Wilmot's fantasy line is 69.5.

Disposals 17.5
How many disposals does Darcy Wilmot average?

Darcy Wilmot's disposals line is 17.5.

Disposals 16.5
How many disposals does Darcy Wilmot average?

Darcy Wilmot's disposals line is 16.5.

Marks 4.5
How many disposals does Darcy Wilmot average?

Darcy Wilmot's marks line is 4.5.

Disposals 15.5
How many disposals does Darcy Wilmot average?

Darcy Wilmot's disposals line is 15.5.

Season averages (2024)

Darcy Wilmot averaged 19.8 disposals, 0.0 goals and 4.9 marks per game across 27 games in 2024.

19.8
Disposals
0.0
Goals
4.9
Marks
1.7
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Darcy Wilmot has cleared 13.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o13.590%
o14.590%
o16.560%
o17.570%
o19.540%
o20.530%
o22.540%
o24.510%
o25.520%
o27.50%
o28.50%
o30.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Darcy Wilmot is averaging 17.8 disposals per game over his last 5.

17.8
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Darcy Wilmot recorded 15 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans15082
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats24080
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS9001
7 Sep 24Carlton21050
24 Aug 24Essendon26041
17 Aug 24Collingwood16030
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS16032
4 Aug 24St Kilda22052
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS27093
21 Jul 24Sydney Swans18061
Quick answers:How many disposals does Darcy Wilmot average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 19.5 Over -286 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 17.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Darcy Wilmot (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Darcy Wilmot is Over 69.5 on Fantasy. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.9% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 12 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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