Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Daniel Curtin is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 68 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 68%, implied 80%, edge +2.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:54AM UTC
AFL

Daniel Curtin

Adelaide Crows

+2.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -400 (1.25) · $100→$125
+2.3% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
82 in 100
Predicted
18.2 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 82.3% · the book's price implies 80.0% · gap +2.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals82.3%68.4%80.0%1.46+2.3%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Daniel Curtin Over 13.5 Disposals (-400)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Daniel Curtin has been showing some impressive skills lately, especially when it comes to disposals. He's been getting around the ball a lot more than most players, with an average well above what you'd expect. With the Brisbane Lions facing off against the Adelaide Crows, Curtin is likely to keep that trend going, especially playing at the Gabba where he can shine. The most concrete risk is that the Crows might put up a tough fight, making it harder for him to get his hands on the ball. Still, our numbers suggest he's got a strong chance to go over 13.5 disposals. It's not a guarantee, but all signs point to him having a big game.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 4(100%)

Daniel Curtin's lines for Sat 12 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Disposals 13.5

Daniel Curtin's disposals line is 13.5.

Disposals 12.5

Daniel Curtin's disposals line is 12.5.

Disposals 15.5

Daniel Curtin's disposals line is 15.5.

Disposals 14.5

Daniel Curtin's disposals line is 14.5.

Marks 2.5

Daniel Curtin's marks line is 2.5.

Marks 1.5

Daniel Curtin's marks line is 1.5.

Season averages (2024)

Daniel Curtin averaged 7.7 disposals, 0.4 goals and 2.3 marks per game across 7 games in 2024.

7.7
Disposals
0.4
Goals
2.3
Marks
1.0
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Daniel Curtin has cleared 11.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o11.590%
o12.580%
o13.580%
o15.560%
o16.550%
o18.520%
o19.50%
o20.520%
o22.510%
o23.50%
o25.50%
o26.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Daniel Curtin is averaging 17.0 disposals per game over his last 5.

17.0
Disp · Overall
0.2
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Sydney Swans), Daniel Curtin recorded 10 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Sydney Swans10141
17 Aug 24Port Adelaide11023
11 Aug 24Western Bulldogs11252
3 Aug 24Geelong Cats1000
28 Jul 24Hawthorn7001
12 May 24Brisbane Lions5010
2 May 24Port Adelaide9040
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Marks 2.5 Over -313 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 14.5 Over -263 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 13.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Daniel Curtin (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Daniel Curtin is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.3% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 12 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.