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The latest Bet Better model pick for Connor Rozee is Over 24.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 82 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 82%, implied 63%, edge +19.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:45AM UTC
AFL

Connor Rozee

Port Adelaide

+19.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 24.5 -172 (1.58) · $100→$158
+19.1% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sat 26 Jul, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
82 in 100
Predicted
29.2 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 82.4% · the book's price implies 63.3% · gap +19.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals82.4%—63.3%1.21+19.1%

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AI Analysis

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Connor Rozee (Port Adelaide) Over 24.5 Disposals (-172)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Connor Rozee's recent away form, averaging 28.4 disposals over his last five games away, indicates a strong trend. Facing Adelaide, where he has averaged 18.3 disposals in recent matchups, further supports his potential to exceed the 24.5 line. With a model predicting him to reach 29.2 disposals and a solid 19.1% edge, Rozee's consistent disposal efficiency (70.3%) and high metres gained (652.2) also bode well. His current hit streak of 5 away games and an impressive 12/13 hit rate overall suggest he's in prime form to maintain his disposals dominance. Betting on Rozee to go Over 24.5 disposals at Adelaide Oval seems a justified choice based on his recent performances and matchup history.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Connor Rozee averaged 23.6 disposals, 0.7 goals and 4.3 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

23.6
Disposals
0.7
Goals
4.3
Marks
4.4
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (20 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Connor Rozee recorded 17 disposals and 2 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
20 Sep 24Sydney Swans17214
13 Sep 24Hawthorn20149
5 Sep 24Geelong Cats16137
25 Aug 24Fremantle19033
17 Aug 24Adelaide Crows28045
10 Aug 24Melbourne28045
3 Aug 24Sydney Swans27185
26 Jul 24Carlton24031
20 Jul 24Richmond24254
14 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS29045
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Connor Rozee (Port Adelaide) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Connor Rozee is Over 24.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.1% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Adelaide Crows on Saturday 26 July at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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