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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Brodie Kemp is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 57 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 57%, implied 61%, edge +8.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:45AM UTC
AFL

Brodie Kemp

Carlton

+8.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -159 (1.63) · $100→$163
+8.8% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 4 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
70 in 100
Predicted
11.2 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 70.1% · the book's price implies 61.3% · gap +8.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.1%57.5%61.3%1.74+8.8%

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AI Analysis

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Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues: Brodie Kemp Over 9.5 Disposals (-159)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

For Brodie Kemp to get over 9.5 disposals tonight, he'll need to be involved in the play a fair bit. Carlton has been on a roll, winning 8 of their last 10 games, and they dominate contested ball situations. This trend means Kemp will likely have more chances to get his hands on the footy. Geelong has been conceding a lot of points lately, averaging over 84 in their last 12 matches, which shows they can be score-heavy games. However, Geelong's ability to break even on contested ball might make things tight. Still, with the way Carlton is playing, Kemp has a solid shot to hit that number.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Brodie Kemp averaged 14.0 disposals, 0.3 goals and 6.2 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

14.0
Disposals
0.3
Goals
6.2
Marks
2.2
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (7 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Brodie Kemp recorded 7 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
7 Sep 24Brisbane Lions7030
25 Aug 24St Kilda7122
18 Aug 24West Coast Eagles12465
11 Aug 24Hawthorn17052
3 Aug 24Collingwood15094
26 Jul 24Port Adelaide17042
13 Jul 24Western Bulldogs180111
6 Jul 24GWS GIANTS10033
30 Jun 24Richmond10071
21 Jun 24Geelong Cats9040
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals 9.5 Over -159 ✗ MISS
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Goals 0.5 Over -323 ✓ HIT
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 9.5 Over -152 ✓ HIT
22 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Carlton Blues Disposals Pending
22 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Carlton Blues Goals Pending
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Goals Pending

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About This Player

Brodie Kemp (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Brodie Kemp is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.8% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats on Friday 4 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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