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The latest Bet Better model pick for Braeden Campbell is Over 1.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 64 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 64%, implied 76%, edge +0.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:46AM UTC
AFL

Braeden Campbell

Sydney Swans

+0.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 1.5 -323 (1.31) · $100→$131
+0.2% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 5 Sep, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
77 in 100
Predicted
2.8 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 76.6% · the book's price implies 76.3% · gap +0.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks76.6%64.4%76.3%1.55+0.2%

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AI Analysis

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Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions: Braeden Campbell Over 1.5 Marks (-323)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

The odds for Braeden Campbell to have over 1.5 marks are looking pretty good at -323. Our numbers suggest he should easily surpass this mark, as he's been showing strong performances lately. Typically, players in similar situations get around 0.4 marks, but Campbell is expected to grab at least 1.5 based on how he has been playing. One thing to watch out for is that the Brisbane Lions have a solid defense, which could make it tougher for Campbell to find space. Still, with his recent form and the way he's been involved in the game, it feels like a solid bet to back him to get those marks.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Braeden Campbell averaged 10.3 disposals, 0.2 goals and 3.2 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

10.3
Disposals
0.2
Goals
3.2
Marks
2.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Braeden Campbell recorded 4 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Brisbane Lions4023
20 Sep 24Port Adelaide8036
7 Sep 24GWS GIANTS9132
24 Aug 24Adelaide Crows14061
16 Aug 24Essendon13265
9 Aug 24Collingwood11054
28 Jul 24Western Bulldogs12014
21 Jul 24Brisbane Lions13032
13 Jul 24North Melbourne13043
7 Jul 24St Kilda13153
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Marks 1.5 Over -323 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals 18.5 Under -116 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Sydney Swans Goals 0.5 Over -154 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Braeden Campbell (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Braeden Campbell is Over 1.5 on Marks. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.2% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 5 September at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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