Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Ben Keays is Over 10.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 78 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 78%, implied 77%, edge +0.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:55AM UTC
AFL
Ben Keays
Adelaide Crows
Latest Model Pick
Disposals
Over 10.5
-333 (1.30) · $100→$130
+0.7% Edge
Adelaide Crows
@
Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
78 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 77.6% · the book's price implies 76.9% · gap +0.7%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Disposals | 77.6% | — | 76.9% | 1.29 | +0.7% |
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Ben Keays (Adelaide Crows) Over 10.5 Disposals (-333)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
Brisbane Lions play Adelaide Crows in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Ben Keays (Adelaide Crows) Over 10.5 Disposals. It was priced at -333 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.00 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Ben Keays's lines for Sat 12 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Disposals 10.5
Ben Keays's disposals line is 10.5.
Season averages (2024)
Ben Keays averaged 16.2 disposals, 1.5 goals and 3.8 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.
Hit-rate ladder: Disposals
Ben Keays has cleared 9.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.
o9.590%
o10.560%
o11.550%
o12.550%
o13.530%
o14.550%
o16.520%
o17.520%
o18.510%
o19.510%
o20.510%
o21.510%
Home / away and opponent splits
Ben Keays is averaging 12.6 disposals per game over his last 5, including his recent form against Brisbane Lions.
16.8
Disp · vs Brisbane Lions
2.0
Goals · vs Brisbane Lions
Recent game log
In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Sydney Swans), Ben Keays recorded 21 disposals and 1 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 24 Aug 24 | Sydney Swans | 21 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 17 Aug 24 | Port Adelaide | 18 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 Aug 24 | Western Bulldogs | 19 | 3 | 8 | 4 |
| 3 Aug 24 | Geelong Cats | 18 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 28 Jul 24 | Hawthorn | 10 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 19 Jul 24 | Essendon | 22 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 13 Jul 24 | St Kilda | 24 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 Jul 24 | Brisbane Lions | 14 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 29 Jun 24 | GWS GIANTS | 21 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 15 Jun 24 | Sydney Swans | 15 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Ben Keays (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ben Keays is Over 10.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.7% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 12 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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