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The latest Bet Better model pick for Ben Ainsworth is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 62 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 62%, implied 74%, edge +0.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:07AM UTC
AFL

Ben Ainsworth

Carlton

+0.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -278 (1.36) · $100→$136
+0.1% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 4 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 12°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
1.1 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 73.7% · the book's price implies 73.5% · gap +0.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals73.7%61.7%73.5%1.62+0.1%

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AI Analysis

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Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues: Ben Ainsworth Over 0.5 Goals (-278)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

The Geelong Cats have had trouble keeping their opponents from scoring, giving up over 84 points per match recently. Meanwhile, Carlton plays strong in contested ball and has been winning most of their games. This sets up a good chance for Ben Ainsworth to score at least one goal. Ainsworth has a solid chance of getting on the scoreboard, especially with Carlton's scoring ability. The risk is that Geelong's defense could step up, which has happened at times. Still, given the way the teams have been playing, betting on Ainsworth to score over 0.5 goals looks promising.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Ben Ainsworth averaged 15.6 disposals, 0.9 goals and 4.9 marks per game across 17 games in 2024.

15.6
Disposals
0.9
Goals
4.9
Marks
1.1
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (14 Jul 24 vs Port Adelaide), Ben Ainsworth recorded 16 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
14 Jul 24Port Adelaide16171
6 Jul 24North Melbourne9141
29 Jun 24Collingwood28290
23 Jun 24Fremantle9012
8 Jun 24St Kilda9171
2 Jun 24Essendon19131
25 May 24Carlton12042
16 May 24Geelong Cats19161
11 May 24North Melbourne19241
5 May 24Brisbane Lions17151
Quick answers:How many disposals does Ben Ainsworth average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Goals 0.5 Over -278 ✓ HIT
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Goals 0.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT
22 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Carlton Blues Goals 0.5 Over -294 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Ben Ainsworth (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ben Ainsworth is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.1% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats on Friday 4 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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