Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Bayley Fritsch is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 78 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 78%, implied 78%, edge +0.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:07AM UTC
AFL

Bayley Fritsch

Melbourne

+0.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -357 (1.28) · $100→$128
+0.2% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 19 Apr, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
78 in 100
Predicted
13.4 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 78.3% · the book's price implies 78.1% · gap +0.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals78.3%—78.1%1.28+0.2%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Bayley Fritsch (Melbourne) Over 9.5 Disposals (-357)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to targeting a player prop bet in the AFL, Bayley Fritsch stands out as a prime candidate for the Over 9.5 disposals against the Brisbane Lions at the MCG. Fritsch has been a consistent performer, averaging 16.8 disposals in his last five home games, well above the set line. With his impressive 71.2% disposal efficiency and knack for gaining valuable metres, Fritsch is a key playmaker for the Melbourne Demons. Against the Brisbane Lions, he has historically stepped up, averaging 8.6 disposals in their recent encounters. Fritsch's recent form, coupled with his overall hit rate and current streak, suggest he's poised to deliver another strong performance. Expect Fritsch to thrive in the midfield battle and easily surpass the 9.5 disposal mark, making him a solid bet for this prop.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Bayley Fritsch averaged 9.5 disposals, 1.8 goals and 3.4 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

9.5
Disposals
1.8
Goals
3.4
Marks
1.2
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (23 Aug 24 vs Collingwood), Bayley Fritsch recorded 9 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
23 Aug 24Collingwood9030
17 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS11171
10 Aug 24Port Adelaide11131
2 Aug 24Western Bulldogs13260
27 Jul 24GWS GIANTS8240
21 Jul 24Fremantle10021
13 Jul 24Essendon9331
7 Jul 24West Coast Eagles11351
28 Jun 24Brisbane Lions11123
22 Jun 24North Melbourne6000
Quick answers:How many disposals does Bayley Fritsch average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Bayley Fritsch (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bayley Fritsch is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.2% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Melbourne Demons on Sunday 19 April at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.