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The latest Bet Better model pick for Bailey Laurie is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 79 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 79%, implied 75%, edge +4.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:45AM UTC
AFL

Bailey Laurie

Melbourne

+4.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -294 (1.34) · $100→$134
+4.1% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 24 Jul, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
79 in 100
Predicted
13.5 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 78.7% · the book's price implies 74.6% · gap +4.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals78.7%—74.6%1.27+4.1%

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AI Analysis

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Bailey Laurie (Melbourne) Over 9.5 Disposals (-294)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Friday night footy at the iconic MCG, Bailey Laurie is poised to shine for the Melbourne Demons against the Geelong Cats. Over his last five home games, Laurie has been a midfield maestro, averaging 13.6 disposals with a sharp 69.9% efficiency. With a knack for finding space and creating opportunities, his 8 kicks and 5.6 handballs per game showcase his versatility on the field. Against the Cats, Laurie has historically stepped up, averaging 1 disposal more than his usual home game average. As the Demons look to dominate the contest, Laurie's ability to rack up possessions, gain crucial metres, and make an impact could see him easily surpass the 9.5 disposals mark. Backing Laurie to go over in the disposals market is a smart play with a high probability of success.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Bailey Laurie averaged 9.0 disposals, 0.3 goals and 1.8 marks per game across 6 games in 2024.

9.0
Disposals
0.3
Goals
1.8
Marks
1.5
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (23 Aug 24 vs Collingwood), Bailey Laurie recorded 7 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
23 Aug 24Collingwood7013
27 Jul 24GWS GIANTS19043
10 Jun 24Collingwood14032
4 May 24Geelong Cats1000
24 Apr 24Richmond5220
7 Mar 24Sydney Swans8011
7 Sep 23Collingwood5002
27 Aug 23Sydney Swans9002
20 Aug 23Hawthorn14011
24 Apr 23Richmond4010
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 9.5 Over -294 ✓ HIT
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 10.5 Over -179 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Bailey Laurie (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bailey Laurie is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.1% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Melbourne Demons on Friday 24 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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