On Saturday 12 September 2026, Tommy McMillen takes on Marwan Rahiki in the UFC. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Tommy McMillen -3.5 on the Line, priced at -110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Tommy McMillen -3.5 on the Line (-110)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Tommy McMillen and Marwan Rahiki are set to face off in a closely matched fight. Both fighters have been resting for a while, but McMillen recently had fewer days off, which might give him a little more momentum. This matchup looks like a nail-biter, but our numbers suggest that McMillen could win by about 3.5 points. The main risk here is how evenly matched they seem, making it possible for Rahiki to pull off an upset. Still, if McMillen uses his reach and stays active, he could cover the spread. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Marwan Rahiki to Win (+150)

Odds available at Bally Bet at time of publishing

Marwan Rahiki has been showing solid skill in his recent fights, balancing striking and grappling well. He's up against Tommy McMillen, who also has a strong game but tends to struggle against fighters who mix things up. Betting on Rahiki to win makes sense here, especially with the odds offering a nice return. This matchup is really close, so there's no guarantee. McMillen is tough and can definitely hold his own if the fight stays standing. If Rahiki can use his wrestling to take control, he should have the upper hand. Just remember, fights can turn quickly, and McMillen has the skills to pull off an upset. It was priced at +150 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $25 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Tommy McMillen: last five W-W-W, on a 3-fight win streak, 10% of career wins came by knockout, 54 days since the last fight
  • Marwan Rahiki: last five W-W-W, on a 3-fight win streak, 33% of career wins came by knockout, 131 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Tommy McMillen v Marwan Rahiki. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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