On Friday 28 August 2026, Phoenix Mercury play Washington Mystics in the WNBA. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Over 166 Total Points, priced at -110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Betting on over 166 total points in the game between the Phoenix Mercury and Washington Mystics looks promising. Our numbers suggest that both teams can score quite well, with the Mystics winning 7 of their last 10 games, while the Mercury have been a bit shaky, winning only 3 of their last 10. The Mystics have been solid at limiting threes, allowing just under 22.5 attempts per game, and the Mercury also give up a fair number of rebounds, which could lead to extra scoring chances.
The risk here is that these teams are closely matched in terms of scoring potential, making it a tough call. However, our model sees a combined total around 170.9, which is above our betting line. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Phoenix Mercury +4 on the Line (-105)
Odds available at William Hill at time of publishing
The Phoenix Mercury need to keep the game close against the Washington Mystics tonight. The Mystics have been on a roll lately, winning 7 of their last 10 games, while the Mercury have struggled, winning only 3 of their last 10. Both teams allow a similar number of three-point attempts, but the Mercury give up slightly more rebounds per game, which could hurt them if the Mystics capitalize on those extra chances. However, the match-up is tight, and even though the Mercury are at home, they face a tough challenge. The model suggests it's almost a toss-up, with the expected final margin being close. If the Mercury can improve their rebounding and limit the Mystics' scoring chances, they have a shot at covering the spread, but a loss is definitely on the table if they can't. It was priced at -105 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.50 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Kiki Iriafen Over 26.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110)
Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing
Kiki Iriafen has shown she can be a key player, but her performance has varied quite a bit lately. In her last ten games, she has recorded between zero and two three-pointers, and that inconsistency makes her a bit tricky to bet on. However, with the Phoenix Mercury allowing opponents to grab a lot of rebounds and shoot plenty of threes, this could create some great chances for her to rack up points, rebounds, and assists. The Mercury have won four of their last ten, while the Washington Mystics are on a hot streak with seven wins in their last ten. This matchup is pretty close, and the Mystics don't give up many rebounds. The main risk here is that Kiki's recent stats show she sometimes struggles to get involved. Still, our numbers suggest she has a good chance to hit over 26.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists today. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Michaela Onyenwere Under 10.5 Points and Rebounds (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Michaela Onyenwere has struggled to find her rhythm lately, with her points and rebounds lately showing some ups and downs. She has recorded a low of zero points and rebounds in her last ten games, which suggests she could be in for a tough night. The Phoenix Mercury are up against the Washington Mystics, a team that has been pretty solid on defense, allowing fewer rebounds than most teams. With the Mystics giving up around 33.8 rebounds a game, there's a chance Onyenwere might not get many chances to rack up her numbers. Since this bet is close to a coin flip, the most concrete risk is that she could surprise us. However, given her recent performance and the Mystics' defense, taking the under on her combined points and rebounds seems like a safe choice. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Shakira Austin Over 30.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-109)
Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing
Shakira Austin has been putting up some solid numbers lately, with her total points, rebounds, and assists often reaching between 23 and 42 in recent games. The Phoenix Mercury have struggled against opponents, allowing a lot of rebounds and three-point attempts, which could lead to Austin getting more opportunities to rack up stats. With the game at home, she might feel even more confident. The Washington Mystics have been performing well, winning 7 of their last 10 games, so they will be a tough opponent. The most concrete risk here is that both teams are closely matched, and if the game turns into a defensive battle, Austin might not get enough chances. Still, we see a good chance for her to go over 30.5 in points, rebounds, and assists. It was priced at -109 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.20 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads Phoenix Mercury v Washington Mystics. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.