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Model picks & player props
Tampa Bay Lightning
VS
Philadelphia Flyers

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Philadelphia Flyers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 1:53PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

NHL
Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Indoor
Tue 13 Jan 2026, 12:00AM
6
Game markets graded
1
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Philadelphia Flyers 1.5 Spread -196

The model graded 7 markets for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Philadelphia Flyers (NHL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $151 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Tue 13 Jan 2026, 12:00AM at Xfinity Mobile Arena.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win74.6%
The price says66.2%
Best price-196
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Philadelphia Flyers 1.5 High75% chance -196
Moneyline High64% chance —
Puck Lines High98% chance —
Saves × 1 prop Leanup to 59% —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every NHL game on today's board →

Tampa Bay Lightning and Philadelphia Flyers last met on Tue 13 Jan 2026. What follows is the model's graded record from that game; a new preview appears here the moment the next one is priced. Today's board: every NHL game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Philadelphia Flyers
+1.5
-196
+ 5 more markets
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All 6 game markets and 1 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,781+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Philadelphia FlyersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay LightningMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia FlyersPuck LinesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Pontus Holmberg RWOut

Philadelphia Flyers

  • Noah Cates LWOut
  • Owen Tippett RWOut
Availability updated May 12, 4:16PM UTC — some NHL rows may be stale between updates. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Tampa Bay Lightning vs Philadelphia Flyers: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and watch the availability of Pontus Holmberg, Noah Cates and Owen Tippett.
FactorThis fixture
Availability3 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Dan Vladar Philadelphia Flyers Saves

+ 1 player prop graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineModel leans Tampa Bay LightningNo line posted

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Philadelphia Flyers moneyline: model lean and both sides' win form.

Puck LinePhiladelphia Flyers +1.5No line posted

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Philadelphia Flyers puck-line (spread) model lean and cover form.

Total GoalsGame totalNo line posted

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Philadelphia Flyers total-goals model lean and scoring trends (the free board has not settled enough of these yet).

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Philadelphia Flyers — what the model found

Our model graded 7 betting markets for Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers — 6 on the game itself and 1 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

6
Game markets graded
1
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 7 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 6 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Philadelphia Flyers — recent results

Philadelphia Flyers have won 1 of their last 5 games; Tampa Bay Lightning have won 2 of their last 5.

Philadelphia Flyers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–3CARHome
L1–4CARHome
L2–3CARAway
L0–3CARAway
W1–0PITHome
Tampa Bay Lightning — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–2MTLHome
W1–0MTLAway
L2–3MTLHome
W3–2MTLAway
L2–3MTLAway

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Philadelphia Flyers — recent meetings

These two have met 2 times recently: Philadelphia Flyers won 0, Tampa Bay Lightning won 2.

DatePhiladelphia FlyersTampa Bay LightningWinner
Jan 1315Tampa Bay Lightning
Jan 1127Tampa Bay Lightning

Who’s out or in doubt

3 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Philadelphia Flyers
PlayerStatus
Noah Cates LWOUT
Owen Tippett RWOUT
Tampa Bay Lightning
PlayerStatus
Pontus Holmberg RWOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Philadelphia Flyers — model preview

Expert analysis and top betting picks for Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning. Includes analysis on key players like Dan Vladar. Discover NHL predictions, NHL game picks, hockey betting preview, Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning stats and odds.

Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning : Philadelphia Flyers +1.5 (-213)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Philadelphia Flyers +1.5 in the 'Puck Line' market is driven by several statistical factors. The Flyers' recent performance shows a strong overall record (4-1), indicating a greater likelihood of outperforming the Lightning, who have an overall record of 2-3. Although the Flyers have struggled at home (1-4), their overall form and resilience is notable. Their goals against average is slightly lower than that of the Lightning (2.6 vs 3), which suggests a more robust defence. Additionally, the model prediction of 0.02, combined with an edge of 5.2%, indicates a certain level of confidence in the Flyers to keep the game close. In essence, the bet is not necessarily about the Flyers winning, but about them not losing by more than 1.5 goals, a scenario that their recent form and comparative statistics make plausible.

🔒 The other 1 write-up for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Philadelphia Flyers in the NHL. You may also see this matchup written as Lightning vs Flyers, or as Flyers vs Lightning. The most recent game between them was Tuesday 13 January 2026 at Xfinity Mobile Arena. The model has generated 6 game picks and 1 player prop for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NHL betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 2 meetings on record
Tampa Bay Lightning 2–0 across the last 2 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
13 Jan 2026Tampa Bay Lightning @ Philadelphia Flyers1–5Tampa Bay Lightning
11 Jan 2026Tampa Bay Lightning @ Philadelphia Flyers2–7Tampa Bay Lightning
Today's selected board

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