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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tua Tagovailoa is Over 24.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt).
On Rushing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 23 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 23%, implied 7%, edge +16.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 9:07AM UTC
NFL

Tua Tagovailoa

MIA

+16.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Rushing Yards (Alt) Over 24.5 +1400 (15.00) · $100→$1,500
+16.5% Edge
Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins
Miami · Indoor
No injury designationSeason pending
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
23 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 23.2% · the book's price implies 6.7% · gap +16.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Yards (Alt)23.2%—6.7%4.32+16.5%

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AI Analysis

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Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) Over 24.5 Player rush yds alternate (+1400)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Based on the statistics provided, it is challenging to support a bet on Tua Tagovailoa to make over 24.5 rushing yards in the 'player_rush_yds_alternate' market. Tagovailoa's recent performance and trends do not reflect a high probability of exceeding this mark. His overall hit rate is only 1 in 50 games, and he has not hit this mark in the last 20 games overall, the last 20 home games, or the last 2 games against the Baltimore Ravens. His current hit streaks are also at zero in all categories. The model edge of 0.164945839835071 indicates a slight advantage, but given his consistent underperformance in this area, it does not provide a compelling reason to bet on the 'over' outcome. Therefore, despite the slight model edge suggested, the available data does not statistically support this bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Rushing Yards17 lines trackedNo line posted
24.5typical line · rushing yds
line range0.5–39.5model over23%tips tracked17

Tua Tagovailoa's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 17 times, typically around a 24.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tua Tagovailoa is Over 24.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.5% on this pick. Their next game is Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins at Miami. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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