Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Darnold is Under 1.5 on Passing Touchdowns.
On Passing Touchdowns, our numbers say this bet wins about 61 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 61%, implied 57%, edge +4.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 11:06AM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Passing Touchdowns
Under 1.5
-135 (1.74) · $100→$174
+4.0% Edge
New England Patriots
@
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle · Indoor
Thu 10 Sep, 12:20AM
QUESTIONABLESeason pending
Darnold underwent a CT scan on his hip and is expected to undergo an MRI on Thursday after the quarterback didn't return to Wednesday's win against the Patriots, Adam Schefter of ESPN.com reports.
updated Sep 10, 3:53AM UTC
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How often this wins
61 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 61.5% · the book's price implies 57.5% · gap +4.0%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Passing Touchdowns | 61.5% | 61.5% | 57.5% | 1.84 | +4.0% |
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Sam Darnold (SEA) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-135)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Seattle Seahawks play New England Patriots in the NFL on Thursday 10 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Sam Darnold (SEA) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns. It was priced at -135 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formRushing Yards11 lines trackedNo line posted 5.5typical line · rushing yds
line range5.5–5.5tips tracked11
Sam Darnold's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 11 times, typically around a 5.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Sam Darnold (SEA) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Darnold is Under 1.5 on Passing Touchdowns. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.0% on this pick. Their next game is New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks on Thursday 10 September at Seattle. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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