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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Robbie Chosen is Over 1.5 on Receptions (Alt).
On Receptions (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 27 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 27%, implied 11%, edge +16.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:47PM UTC
NFL

Robbie Chosen

MIA

+16.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Receptions (Alt) Over 1.5 +850 (9.50) · $100→$950
+16.0% Edge
Washington Commanders @ Miami Dolphins
Miami · Indoor
No injury designationSeason pending
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
27 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 26.6% · the book's price implies 10.5% · gap +16.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receptions (Alt)26.6%10.5%3.76+16.0%

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AI Analysis

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Robbie Chosen (MIA) Over 1.5 Player receptions alternate (+850)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Robbie Chosen to achieve over 1.5 receptions in the Miami Dolphins versus Washington Commanders game may not be the most favorable bet, given the recent performance data. Chosen's overall hit rate in the last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games suggests a relatively low success rate, falling only 1/3, 1/5, 2/10, and 6/20 times respectively. His performance at home games is even lower, with hit rates of 0/3, 1/5, 2/10, and 4/13 for the last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games respectively. Furthermore, his current streak for both overall and home games is zero, indicating a lack of momentum. Although the model edge is 0.160485545837733, which suggests a slight advantage, the data points towards a trend of underperformance by Chosen in recent games. Therefore,

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards4 lines trackedNo line posted
19.5typical line · receiving yds
line range19.5–39.5model over36%tips tracked4

Robbie Chosen's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 4 times, typically around a 19.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions2 lines trackedNo line posted
0.5typical line · receptions
line range0.5–1.5model over60%tips tracked2

Robbie Chosen's NFL receptions prop has been priced 2 times, typically around a 0.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Robbie Chosen (MIA) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Robbie Chosen is Over 1.5 on Receptions (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.0% on this pick. Their next game is Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins at Miami. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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