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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Lamar Jackson is Yes on Anytime TD.
On Anytime TD, our numbers say this bet wins about 50 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 50%, implied 33%, edge +17.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 1:50PM UTC
NFL

Lamar Jackson

BAL

+17.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Anytime TD Yes +205 (3.05) · $100→$305
+17.4% Edge
New York Jets @ Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore · Indoor
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Jackson told reporters recently that injuries factored into his running less in 2025, per Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com. "I believe you know ... a lot of people know [that] I was hurt last year, so I really could not do anything like I wanted to," said Jackson.
updated Sep 1, 4:50PM UTC · 8d old
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Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
50 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 50.2% · the book's price implies 32.8% · gap +17.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Anytime TD50.2%32.8%1.99+17.4%

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AI Analysis

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Lamar Jackson (BAL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+205)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The statistical data does not strongly support a bet on Lamar Jackson to score a touchdown at any point in the game between the Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets. Jackson has not managed to score a touchdown in his last 5 games overall or at home, as well as in his last 3 matchups against the Jets. The overall hit rate for Jackson to score a touchdown is less than 20% (10/56), and it's even lower when playing at home (5/27). He hasn’t been successful in his last attempt against the Jets either. Moreover, all his current hit streaks are at zero, providing no evidence of recent upward momentum. The model edge of 0.174, while positive, indicates a relatively small expected advantage for this bet. Based on these statistics, a bet on Jackson to score a touchdown in this game seems risky.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD9 lines trackedNo line posted
50%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked9

Lamar Jackson's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 9 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 50%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Lamar Jackson (BAL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lamar Jackson is Yes on Anytime TD. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.4% on this pick. Their next game is New York Jets vs Baltimore Ravens at Baltimore. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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