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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Josh Allen is Under 19.5 on Rushing Yards.
On Rushing Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 67 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 67%, implied 53%, edge +13.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 9:06AM UTC
NFL

Josh Allen

BUF

+13.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Rushing Yards Under 19.5 -115 (1.87) · $100→$187
+13.6% Edge
New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills
Buffalo · Indoor
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Allen made one appearance during the Bills' three-game preseason schedule.
updated Sep 4, 9:21PM UTC · 5d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
67 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 67.1% · the book's price implies 53.5% · gap +13.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Yards67.1%53.5%1.49+13.6%

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AI Analysis

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Josh Allen (BUF) Under 19.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Josh Allen's recent performance suggests that betting on him to rush under 19.5 yards is a statistically sound decision. Analyzing his recent trends, Allen's overall hit rate for rushing under 19.5 yards has been consistent, reaching the mark in 0 of the last 3 games, and in 0 of the last 5 games both overall and at home. Even looking at longer-term trends, Allen has only reached this rushing yard total in 1 of the last 10 games overall, and 4 of the last 10 at home. In total, Allen has gone under 19.5 rushing yards in 17 out of 59 overall games and 13 out of 33 home games, highlighting that this is a common occurrence for him. Furthermore, his current hit streak for both overall and home games is 0, suggesting his recent form is not leaning towards high rushing yard totals. Therefore, betting under 19.5 on Allen's rushing yards is a

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Rushing Yards2 lines trackedNo line posted
17.5typical line · rushing yds
line range17.5–19.5tips tracked2

Josh Allen's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 2 times, typically around a 17.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Josh Allen (BUF) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Josh Allen is Under 19.5 on Rushing Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +13.6% on this pick. Their next game is New Orleans Saints vs Buffalo Bills at Buffalo. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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