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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jarrett Stidham is Under 15.5 on Rushing Yards.
On Rushing Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 58 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 58%, implied 53%, edge +5.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 7:18PM UTC
NFL

Jarrett Stidham

DEN

+5.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Rushing Yards Under 15.5 -114 (1.88) · $100→$188
+5.1% Edge
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos
Denver · Indoor
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Coach Sean Payton said Wednesday that Stidham will be the Broncos' backup quarterback to begin the 2026 season, Zac Stevens of TheDNVR.com reports.
updated Sep 2, 11:42PM UTC · 7d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
58 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 58.3% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap +5.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Yards58.3%—53.2%1.72+5.1%

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AI Analysis

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Jarrett Stidham (DEN) Under 15.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The betting rationale for under 15.5 on Jarrett Stidham's rushing yards in the Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots game is based on Stidham's recent performance and trends. His overall hit rate in the last 3, 5, and 10 games indicates that he has consistently stayed under this mark, with a hit rate of 2/3, 4/5, and 5/8 respectively. Though his home hit rate is slightly lower, the overall trend suggests he struggles to reach this rushing total. Additionally, his current hit streak for both overall and home games is zero, indicating he's been below this threshold in recent games. The model edge, though slim, also leans towards the under. Given these data points, betting under 15.5 on Stidham's rushing yards seems to be a statistically sound decision.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Rushing Yards8 lines trackedNo line posted
14.5typical line · rushing yds
line range13.5–15.5tips tracked8

Jarrett Stidham's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 8 times, typically around a 14.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Jarrett Stidham (DEN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jarrett Stidham is Under 15.5 on Rushing Yards. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.1% on this pick. Their next game is New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos at Denver. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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