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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jalen Tolbert is Under 1.5 on Receptions.
On Receptions, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 72%, implied 56%, edge +15.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:45AM UTC
NFL

Jalen Tolbert

DAL

+15.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Receptions Under 1.5 -130 (1.77) · $100→$177
+15.3% Edge
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
Dallas · Indoor
No injury designationSeason pending
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 71.8% · the book's price implies 56.5% · gap +15.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receptions71.8%56.5%1.39+15.3%

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AI Analysis

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Jalen Tolbert (DAL) Under 1.5 Receptions (-130)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on Jalen Tolbert to have under 1.5 receptions in the Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants game is supported by multiple statistical trends. Firstly, Tolbert's overall hit rate for under 1.5 receptions is 12 out of 34 games, which is a rate of 35%. This suggests that he typically exceeds this threshold in most of his games. When looking at his performance specifically at home, his hit rate lowers to 6 out of 18 games, just about 33%. Furthermore, his performance against the Giants is even less promising, with no games under 1.5 receptions in his last 2 at home. His current hit streak for this market is also zero for both home games and games against the Giants. These stats suggest that it is statistically more likely for Tolbert to have more than 1.5 receptions in this game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards2 lines trackedNo line posted
11.5typical line · receiving yds
line range11.5–19.5tips tracked2

Jalen Tolbert's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 2 times, typically around a 11.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions4 lines trackedNo line posted
1.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–1.5tips tracked4

Jalen Tolbert's NFL receptions prop has been priced 4 times, typically around a 1.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Jalen Tolbert (DAL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jalen Tolbert is Under 1.5 on Receptions. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.3% on this pick. Their next game is New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys at Dallas. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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