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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jake Ferguson is Yes on Anytime TD.
On Anytime TD, our numbers say this bet wins about 50 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 50%, implied 45%, edge +4.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:06AM UTC
NFL

Jake Ferguson

DAL

+4.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Anytime TD Yes +120 (2.20) · $100→$220
+4.8% Edge
Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys
Dallas · Indoor
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Ferguson did not play in any of the Cowboys' three preseason games.
updated Sep 3, 12:50AM UTC · 7d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
50 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 50.2% · the book's price implies 45.5% · gap +4.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Anytime TD50.2%—45.5%1.99+4.8%

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AI Analysis

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Jake Ferguson (DAL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+120)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

A bet on Jake Ferguson to score a touchdown at any time in the game between Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals seems statistically unfavorable. Ferguson has not scored a touchdown in any of his last 20 games, with an overall hit rate of only 7 out of 52 games. His performance at home games is only marginally better, with a hit rate of 5 out of 25 games. Against the Cardinals, his performance is particularly weak, with no touchdowns scored in the last game. Looking at these trends, it appears that Ferguson's scoring ability has been in a slump lately, with zero successful hits in his last 10 games overall, at home, and against the Cardinals. Thus, the data suggests that betting on Ferguson to score a touchdown at any time in this game is a risky proposition.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD7 lines trackedNo line posted
47%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked7

Jake Ferguson's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 7 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 47%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Jake Ferguson (DAL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jake Ferguson is Yes on Anytime TD. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.8% on this pick. Their next game is Arizona Cardinals vs Dallas Cowboys at Dallas. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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