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The latest Bet Better model pick for Isiah Pacheco is Under 1.5 on Receptions.
On Receptions, our numbers say this bet wins about 75 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 75%, implied 57%, edge +18.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:50AM UTC
NFL

Isiah Pacheco

KC

+18.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Receptions Under 1.5 -132 (1.76) · $100→$176
+18.1% Edge
Washington Commanders @ Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City · Indoor
No injury designationSeason pending
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
75 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 74.9% · the book's price implies 56.8% · gap +18.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receptions74.9%56.8%1.34+18.1%

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AI Analysis

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Isiah Pacheco (KC) Under 1.5 Receptions (-132)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on Isiah Pacheco for Under 1.5 in the 'player_receptions' market is a statistically sound decision for several reasons. Firstly, Pacheco's overall hit rate is above 50% at 30/54, indicating a general trend of him staying under 1.5 receptions. The hit rate is even more compelling in the recent games, with 6 out of the last 10 games staying under this threshold. Additionally, when playing at home, Pacheco's under 1.5 receptions hit rate is just above the half mark at 16/31. Furthermore, both his overall and home hit streaks are currently at 2 games, indicating a recent trend of low receptions. The model edge of 0.1807 also favors the 'Under' outcome. In essence, both Pacheco's historical performance and recent trends suggest a higher likelihood of him having less than 1.5 receptions in the upcoming game against the Washington Command

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD1 line trackedNo line posted
50%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked1

Isiah Pacheco's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 1 time, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 50%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receiving Yards5 lines trackedNo line posted
7.5typical line · receiving yds
line range7.5–24.5model over57%tips tracked5

Isiah Pacheco's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 5 times, typically around a 7.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions1 line trackedNo line posted
1.5typical line · receptions
tips tracked1

Isiah Pacheco's NFL receptions prop has been priced 1 time, typically around a 1.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Isiah Pacheco (KC) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Isiah Pacheco is Under 1.5 on Receptions. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.1% on this pick. Their next game is Washington Commanders vs Kansas City Chiefs at Kansas City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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