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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Derrick Henry is Over 9.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt).
On Receiving Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 51 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 51%, implied 43%, edge +8.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 7:37AM UTC
NFL

Derrick Henry

BAL

+8.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Receiving Yards (Alt) Over 9.5 +134 (2.34) · $100→$234
+8.2% Edge
New York Jets @ Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore · Indoor
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Henry will head into the Ravens' Week 1 game against the Colts with Justice Hill and Rasheen Ali as his backup options, Ryan Mink of the team's official site reports.
updated Sep 1, 5:52PM UTC · 8d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
51 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 50.9% · the book's price implies 42.7% · gap +8.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards (Alt)50.9%42.7%1.97+8.2%

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AI Analysis

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Derrick Henry (BAL) Over 9.5 Player reception yds alternate (+134)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The statistical data for Derrick Henry's player reception yards doesn't support a strong case for betting over 9.5 yards. Henry's overall hit rate in the last 20 games is only 20% (4/20) and at home, it increases slightly to 45% (9/20). In the last 10 games, he hasn't hit this mark at all (0/10), while at home he's managed to achieve this 30% of the time (3/10). Furthermore, his recent performance is poor, with a current hit streak of zero both overall and at home. Considering his overall hit rate is less than 50% (29/62 overall and 17/30 at home), the likelihood of Henry surpassing 9.5 reception yards is relatively low. Although the model edge suggests a slight advantage, the prominent data points to a trend of underperformance in this particular market.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards54 lines trackedNo line posted
9.5typical line · receiving yds
line range4.5–29.5model over53%tips tracked54

Derrick Henry's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 54 times, typically around a 9.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions6 lines trackedNo line posted
1.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–1.5tips tracked6

Derrick Henry's NFL receptions prop has been priced 6 times, typically around a 1.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Derrick Henry (BAL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Derrick Henry is Over 9.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt). The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.2% on this pick. Their next game is New York Jets vs Baltimore Ravens at Baltimore. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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