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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Dawson Knox is Over 5.5 on Receiving Yards.
On Receiving Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 60 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 60%, implied 53%, edge +6.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 9:06AM UTC
NFL

Dawson Knox

BUF

+6.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Receiving Yards Over 5.5 -112 (1.89) · $100→$189
+6.6% Edge
New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills
Buffalo · Indoor
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Knox was among the Bills who didn't see action in Saturday's preseason game against the Browns.
updated Aug 24, 3:23PM UTC · 16d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
60 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 59.5% · the book's price implies 52.9% · gap +6.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards59.5%52.9%1.68+6.6%

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AI Analysis

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Dawson Knox (BUF) Over 5.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The data for Dawson Knox does not support a strong rationale for betting on him to go over 5.5 reception yards in the upcoming game against the New Orleans Saints. Knox's recent performance indicates a downturn in productivity in both overall and home games. In his last five games, he has not hit the over in any of them. Moreover, his hit rate at home in the last three games is 0/3. Even looking at longer-term trends, his overall hit rate in the last 20 games is less than 50% (9/20), and his home hit rate is exactly 50% (10/20). The current hit streaks also show that he has not been successful recently. Despite a decent overall hit rate of 32/48, his current form doesn't inspire confidence for this bet. Therefore, this bet seems risky given the recent and historical stats.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards8 lines trackedNo line posted
4.5typical line · receiving yds
line range4.5–29.5model over61%tips tracked8

Dawson Knox's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 8 times, typically around a 4.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Dawson Knox (BUF) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Dawson Knox is Over 5.5 on Receiving Yards. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.6% on this pick. Their next game is New Orleans Saints vs Buffalo Bills at Buffalo. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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