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The latest Bet Better model pick for Davis Mills is Over 29.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt).
On Rushing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 15 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 15%, implied 11%, edge +4.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 7:37PM UTC
NFL

Davis Mills

HOU

+4.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Rushing Yards (Alt) Over 29.5 +850 (9.50) · $100→$950
+4.7% Edge
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans
Houston · Indoor
No injury designationSeason pending
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
15 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 15.3% · the book's price implies 10.5% · gap +4.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Yards (Alt)15.3%10.5%6.55+4.7%

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AI Analysis

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Davis Mills (HOU) Over 29.5 Player rush yds alternate (+850)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The statistics for Davis Mills rushing yards performance are not promising for a bet on over 29.5 yards. Both his recent performance (L5 averages) and overall trends show a consistent inability to surpass this mark. He has failed to hit the over in his last 5 and last 10 games, both overall and at home. His overall hit rate is just 1 out of 28, and at home it's 1 out of 14. The model edge is also relatively low at just 0.047, suggesting that there's not a significant statistical advantage in choosing this bet. Moreover, his current hit streaks at home and overall are both at zero. Given these statistics, it would be a risky proposition to bet on Davis Mills for Over 29.5 in the 'player_rush_yds_alternate' market in the Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Rushing Yards20 lines trackedNo line posted
8.5typical line · rushing yds
line range7.5–29.5model over58%tips tracked20

Davis Mills's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 20 times, typically around a 8.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Davis Mills (HOU) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Davis Mills is Over 29.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a slight edge of +4.7% on this pick. Their next game is Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans at Houston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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