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The latest Bet Better model pick for David Montgomery is Under 12.5 on Receiving Yards.
On Receiving Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 54 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 54%, implied 53%, edge +1.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 7:00AM UTC
NFL

David Montgomery

DET

+1.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Receiving Yards Under 12.5 -111 (1.90) · $100→$190
+1.0% Edge
Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions
Detroit · Indoor
No injury designationSeason pending
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
54 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 53.6% · the book's price implies 52.6% · gap +1.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards53.6%—52.6%1.86+1.0%

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AI Analysis

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David Montgomery (DET) Under 12.5 Receiving Yards (-111)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on David Montgomery for Under 12.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market for the Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys game seems like a reasonable pick considering Montgomery's recent performance. Analyzing his hit rate, it's evident that he's been underperforming. His overall hit rate for the last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games is 0, 0, 0, and 0 respectively. Even his performance at home isn't encouraging with a hit rate of 0 in the last 3, 5, and 10 home games. Although he has a positive hit rate of 2/3 against the Cowboys, his overall and current home hit streaks stand at 0, indicating a lack of consistency. Therefore, based on these statistics, betting Under 12.5 for Montgomery's reception yards seems a plausible choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards14 lines trackedNo line posted
12.5typical line · receiving yds
line range6.5–19.5tips tracked14

David Montgomery's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 14 times, typically around a 12.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Anytime TD5 lines trackedNo line posted
50%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked5

David Montgomery's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 5 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 50%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions2 lines trackedNo line posted
1.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–1.5tips tracked2

David Montgomery's NFL receptions prop has been priced 2 times, typically around a 1.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

David Montgomery (DET) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for David Montgomery is Under 12.5 on Receiving Yards. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.0% on this pick. Their next game is Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions at Detroit. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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