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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Cole Kmet is Over 0.5 on Receptions (Alt).
On Receptions (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 91 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 91%, implied 85%, edge +6.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 12:20PM UTC
NFL

Cole Kmet

CHI

+6.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Receptions (Alt) Over 0.5 -556 (1.18) · $100→$118
+6.7% Edge
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
Chicago · Indoor
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Kmet is listed as a starting tight end along with Colston Loveland on the Bears' unofficial depth chart heading into the Sept. 13 season opener versus the Panthers.
updated Sep 2, 1:48PM UTC · 7d old
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Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
91 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 91.5% · the book's price implies 84.8% · gap +6.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receptions (Alt)91.5%84.8%1.09+6.7%

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AI Analysis

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Cole Kmet (CHI) Over 0.5 Player receptions alternate (-556)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Cole Kmet to have over 0.5 receptions in the game between the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers is statistically well-supported. Kmet has a strong performance history, as evidenced by his 100% hit rate in the last 3, 5, and 10 overall games, as well as in the last 3, 5, and 10 home games. Furthermore, Kmet's hit rate against the Packers is also impressive, with a 100% success rate in the last 3 and 5 matchups, and a nearly perfect 5/6 in the last 10 games. Even when considering his overall performance, Kmet's hit rate is remarkable at 60 out of 63 games. These statistics, alongside his ongoing 19-game overall hit streak and 30-game home hit streak, strongly suggest that Kmet is likely to have more than 0.5 receptions in the upcoming game, hence the rationale for this bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receptions21 lines trackedNo line posted
1.5typical line · receptions
line range0.5–2.5model over63%tips tracked21

Cole Kmet's NFL receptions prop has been priced 21 times, typically around a 1.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receiving Yards60 lines trackedNo line posted
14.5typical line · receiving yds
line range4.5–39.5model over58%tips tracked60

Cole Kmet's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 60 times, typically around a 14.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Cole Kmet (CHI) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Cole Kmet is Over 0.5 on Receptions (Alt). The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.7% on this pick. Their next game is Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears at Chicago. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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