Bucky Irving (TB) Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Based on the historical data, betting on Bucky Irving for under 20.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market is a statistically sound decision. The overall hit rate for Irving is less than 50% (10/23). His performance on home soil is even worse, with only 6 successful hits out of 13 games. Specifically, against Atlanta Falcons, his hit rate is only 50% (1/2). When playing against the Falcons at home, he has never hit the mark (0/1).
Furthermore, his recent performance does not inspire confidence either. In the last 5 games, he has not had a single hit (0/5) and his current hit streak in all categories is zero. The model edge of 0.145 also suggests a higher chance of Irving falling under 20.5 in player reception yards. Thus, statistical reasoning supports the 'under' bet for Bucky Irving.