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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Baker Mayfield is Under 16.5 on Rushing Yards.
On Rushing Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 61 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 61%, implied 52%, edge +8.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 9:06AM UTC
NFL

Baker Mayfield

TB

+8.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Rushing Yards Under 16.5 -109 (1.92) · $100→$192
+8.5% Edge
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay · Indoor
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Mayfield and the Buccaneers agreed Tuesday on a three-year, $165 million contract extension, Adam Schefter and Ian Rapoport of ESPN report.
updated Sep 8, 9:19PM UTC · 1d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
61 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 60.5% · the book's price implies 52.1% · gap +8.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Yards60.5%52.1%1.65+8.5%

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AI Analysis

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Baker Mayfield (TB) Under 16.5 Rushing Yards (-109)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Baker Mayfield going under 16.5 rushing yards in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers game is supported by his recent performance and trends. Looking at his overall statistics, Mayfield has been underperforming, particularly in his last 10 games where he hit the under target 10/10 times. His performance at home also supports the under bet, with a hit rate of 1/10 in his last 10 home games. Moreover, his current overall and home hit streaks are both at zero, which indicates a consistent underperformance. Although his record against Carolina is strong, it is important to consider the broader trends. The model also gives an edge of 0.0845 to the under bet, suggesting its prediction aligns with these statistics. Therefore, the data-driven rationale supports a bet on the under 16.5 rushing yards for Mayfield in this game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Rushing Yards17 lines trackedNo line posted
16.5typical line · rushing yds
line range8.5–29.5tips tracked17

Baker Mayfield's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 17 times, typically around a 16.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Baker Mayfield (TB) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Baker Mayfield is Under 16.5 on Rushing Yards. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.5% on this pick. Their next game is Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Tampa Bay. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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