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Model picks & player props
Texas State Bobcats
VS
Texas Longhorns

Texas State Bobcats vs Texas Longhorns Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 4:46AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

NCAAF
Sat 5 Sep 2026, 7:30PM
20
Game markets graded
2
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Under 54.5 Alt Total Points +196

The model graded 22 markets for Texas State Bobcats vs Texas Longhorns (NCAAF) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $296 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 5 Sep 2026, 7:30PM.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win46.9%
The price says34.0%
Best price+196
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Alt Total Points Under 54.5 Lean47% chance +196
Alt Total Points High61% chance
Alt Spread High64% chance
Alt Total Points High63% chance
Alt Spread High76% chance
Alt Total Points Long-shot16% chance
Alt Total Points Long-shot15% chance
Alt Total Points High86% chance
Alt Spread Lean48% chance
Receptions × 2 props Highup to 99%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Texas State Bobcats and Texas Longhorns last met on Sat 5 Sep 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every NCAAF game priced right now.

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This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Over 59.5 · $100 returned $193

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best NCAAF market — 212 of 394 right (ncaaf totals overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 6
Over 46
Wisconsin Badgers @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $193
Our call on this game: 1 pick on the board · logged before tip-offSee the picks

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Alt Total Points
Under
61.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Texas State BobcatsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Texas State BobcatsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Texas State BobcatsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Texas State BobcatsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Texas State BobcatsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Texas State BobcatsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Texas LonghornsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Texas LonghornsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Texas State Bobcats

No players are currently listed out or questionable for this team.

Texas Longhorns

No players are currently listed out or questionable for this team.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Texas State Bobcats vs Texas Longhorns: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and no players are currently listed out or questionable.
FactorThis fixture
AvailabilityNone currently listed out or questionable

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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The preview

Written 6 Sep

Texas Longhorns vs Texas State Bobcats Prediction & Picks: Analytics Breakdown

On Sunday 6 September 2026, Texas Longhorns play Texas State Bobcats in college football. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Texas State Bobcats +29.5 on the Line, priced at -110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Texas State Bobcats +29.5 on the Line (-110)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

On Saturday 5 September 2026, Texas Longhorns host Texas State Bobcats in college football. The bet we are looking at is Texas State Bobcats 29.5 Point Spread. On this line Texas State Bobcats start with 29.5 points in hand, so they can lose by less than that and this still wins. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.09 if it lands. That price was showing at DraftKings. Our model leans this way, without being sure. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.09 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Under 58 Total Points (+110)

Odds available at Fanatics at time of publishing

On Saturday 5 September 2026, Texas Longhorns host Texas State Bobcats in college football. The bet we are looking at is Under 58 Total Points. This wins if the two sides score fewer than 58 points between them. This is one of the bookmaker's alternate lines, not the main one, so the price is different. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. That price was showing at Fanatics. Our model has this one as a long shot, so keep the bet small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Texas Longhorns v Texas State Bobcats. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Cam Coleman TEX Receptions
Ryan Wingo Receptions

+ 2 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Texas State Bobcats @ Texas Longhorns — what the model found

Our model graded 22 betting markets for Texas State Bobcats at Texas Longhorns — 20 on the game itself and 2 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
2
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 22 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 21 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Texas State Bobcats @ Texas Longhorns — model preview

Texas Longhorns v Texas State Bobcats, 6 September 2026. Top of the list: Texas State Bobcats +29.5 on the Line. Our model likes 2 bets in this game.

On Sunday 6 September 2026, Texas Longhorns play Texas State Bobcats in college football. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Texas State Bobcats +29.5 on the Line, priced at -110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Texas State Bobcats +29.5 on the Line (-110)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

On Saturday 5 September 2026, Texas Longhorns host Texas State Bobcats in college football. The bet we are looking at is Texas State Bobcats 29.5 Point Spread. On this line Texas State Bobcats start with 29.5 points in hand, so they can lose by less than that and this still wins. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.09 if it lands. That price was showing at DraftKings. Our model leans this way, without being sure. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.09 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

🔒 The other 1 write-up for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
05 Sep 26 Alt Spread Texas Longhorns -16 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Alt Total Points Under 73.5 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Alt Spread Texas Longhorns -14.5 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Alt Total Points Under 74 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Alt Spread Texas Longhorns -14 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Alt Total Points Under 82.5 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Alt Total Points Under 89.5 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Alt Total Points Under 88.5 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Alt Total Points Under 67.5 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Alt Total Points Under 73 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Texas State Bobcats vs Texas Longhorns in the NCAAF. You may also see this matchup written as Bobcats vs Longhorns, or as Longhorns vs Bobcats. The most recent game between them was Saturday 5 September 2026. The model has generated 20 game picks and 2 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NCAAF betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 1 meeting
Texas Longhorns 1–0 across the last meeting
DateGameScoreWinner
5 Sep 2026Texas State Bobcats @ Texas Longhorns59–7Texas Longhorns
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