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The latest Bet Better model pick for Naji Marshall is Over 14.5 on Points.
On Points, our numbers say this bet wins about 70 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 70%, implied 43%, edge +26.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:07AM UTC
NBA

Naji Marshall

Dallas Mavericks

+26.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Points Over 14.5 +132 (2.32) · $100→$232
+26.4% Edge
Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns
Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ · Indoor
Thu 9 Apr, 2:00AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
70 in 100
Predicted
17.5 Points
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 69.5% · the book's price implies 43.1% · gap +26.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points69.5%43.1%1.44+26.4%

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AI Analysis

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Naji Marshall (Dallas Mavericks) Over 14.5 Points (+132)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Naji Marshall has been quietly carving out his role, especially on the road, and this matchup against the Phoenix Suns presents a prime opportunity for him to shine. Averaging 20.6 points in his last five away games, he's clearly become comfortable in hostile territory. Even more compelling is his recent history against the Mavericks-he's clocked in nearly 20 points per game over his last few encounters with them. Consider this: Marshall has hit the over on 14.5 points in four straight away games, showcasing his ability to step up when it matters most. With the Suns focusing on containing other offensive threats, it's likely he'll get the chances he needs to surpass this line. Given his expected stat value hovering around 17.46, betting on Marshall to exceed 14.5 points feels like a savvy move that aligns with his current form and matchup dynamics.

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Pick History & Track Record

Naji Marshall — 2024-25 season averages

Over 71 games in the 2024-25 season, Naji Marshall averaged 13.2 points, 4.7 rebounds and 3.0 assists in 27.9 minutes per game, shooting 51.2% from the field and 27.9% from three-point range.

13.2
PPG
4.7
RPG
3.0
APG
1.0
SPG
0.2
BPG
27.9
MPG
51.2%
FG%
27.9%
3P%

Naji Marshall — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Naji Marshall has played 31.0 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

31.0
MPG (L5)
12.6
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Naji Marshall — home vs away scoring

At home Naji Marshall averages 12.3 points per game; on the road, 14.1. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

12.3
PPG at home
14.1
PPG on the road

Naji Marshall — scoring by opponent

Naji Marshall scores most against the HOU, averaging 10.4 points per game in that matchup.

10.4
HOU
9.1
MEM
9.1
OKC
8.4
PHI
8.4
PHX
8.3
SA

Naji Marshall — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Naji Marshall has averaged 12.2 points, 4.0 rebounds and 4.1 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
18 Apr@ MEM341345
16 Apr@ SAC29943
13 Apr@ MEM281132
11 Aprvs TOR28725
9 Aprvs LAL362348
5 Apr@ LAC33921
4 Apr@ LAC362244
2 Aprvs ATL35628
31 Marvs BKN27883
29 Mar@ CHI271472
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Naji Marshall (Dallas Mavericks) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Naji Marshall is Over 14.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +26.4% on this pick. Their next game is Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns on Thursday 9 April at Footprint Center, Phoenix. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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