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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for LaMelo Ball is Under 4.5 on 3-Pointers.
On 3-Pointers, our numbers say this bet wins about 76 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 76%, implied 57%, edge +18.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:45AM UTC
NBA

LaMelo Ball

Charlotte Hornets

+18.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
3-Pointers Under 4.5 -135 (1.74) · $100→$174
+18.9% Edge
Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic
Kia Center, Orlando, FL · Indoor
Fri 17 Apr, 11:30PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
76 in 100
Predicted
3.3 3-Pointers
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 76.4% · the book's price implies 57.5% · gap +18.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
3-Pointers76.4%57.5%1.31+18.9%

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AI Analysis

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LaMelo Ball (Charlotte Hornets) Under 4.5 Threes Made (-135)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As LaMelo Ball steps onto the court against the Orlando Magic, we might see a different shooting narrative unfold. Sure, he's been on fire recently, averaging 5.2 threes over his last five games. But let's dig deeper. His away performances paint a more telling picture, where he's hit an average of just 5 threes, and against the Magic, specifically, his output dips to around 3.2 makes. Considering he's had a hit rate of just 64% in his last 11 away games, it's apparent that consistency can waver when he's not on home turf. The Magic's defensive schemes can stifle perimeter shooting, and with Ball's expected value sitting at around 3.29, it's reasonable to bet on him staying under that 4.5 mark. With the odds favoring this outcome, it feels like a smart play to anticipate a lower-than-expected performance from LaMelo tonight.

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Pick History & Track Record

LaMelo Ball — 2024-25 season averages

Over 47 games in the 2024-25 season, LaMelo Ball averaged 25.2 points, 4.9 rebounds and 7.4 assists in 32.0 minutes per game, shooting 40.5% from the field and 33.9% from three-point range.

25.2
PPG
4.9
RPG
7.4
APG
1.1
SPG
0.3
BPG
32.0
MPG
40.5%
FG%
33.9%
3P%

LaMelo Ball — recent role

Across his last 5 games, LaMelo Ball has played 30.2 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

30.2
MPG (L5)
22.2
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

LaMelo Ball — points hit rate

LaMelo Ball has scored over 15.5 points in 56% of 122 career games.

o11.579%
o12.573%
o15.556%
o20.535%
o25.513%

LaMelo Ball — home vs away scoring

At home LaMelo Ball averages 25.7 points per game; on the road, 24.7. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

25.7
PPG at home
24.7
PPG on the road

LaMelo Ball — scoring by opponent

LaMelo Ball scores most against the MIL, averaging 29.3 points per game in that matchup.

29.3
MIL
27.6
BOS
24.1
WSH
22.5
ATL
22.0
ORL
20.2
DET

LaMelo Ball — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, LaMelo Ball has averaged 21.7 points, 4.2 rebounds and 8.7 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
25 Marvs ORL292519
23 Mar@ MIA3418311
20 Marvs NY282558
16 Mar@ LAC311625
14 Mar@ SA2927315
12 Mar@ ATL302529
10 Mar@ MIA3615610
7 Marvs CLE231317
5 Marvs MIN3628106
3 Marvs GS342597
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

LaMelo Ball (Charlotte Hornets) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for LaMelo Ball is Under 4.5 on 3-Pointers. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.9% on this pick. Their next game is Charlotte Hornets vs Orlando Magic on Friday 17 April at Kia Center, Orlando. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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