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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jalen Green is Under 18.5 on Points.
On Points, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 74%, implied 52%, edge +22.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:45AM UTC
NBA

Jalen Green

Phoenix Suns

+22.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Points Under 18.5 -108 (1.93) · $100→$193
+22.1% Edge
Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns
Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ · Indoor
Sat 18 Apr, 2:00AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
14.8 Points
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 73.9% · the book's price implies 51.8% · gap +22.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points73.9%51.8%1.35+22.1%

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AI Analysis

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Jalen Green (Phoenix Suns) Under 18.5 Points (-108)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Phoenix Suns prepare to host the Golden State Warriors, Jalen Green's scoring potential is under scrutiny. While he's been averaging 20 points over his last five games, his performance against the Warriors tells a different story. Green has managed just 9.6 points in their previous encounters, and at home, that number rises slightly to 14.6. With the Suns focused on balancing their offensive attack, Green may not have the green light to dominate the scoring sheet tonight. The Warriors thrive on pressure defense, which could further stifle his chances. Considering the line is set at 18.5, the expected stat value of 14.79 suggests we might see a performance more in line with his past against this opponent. Given that he's only hit the over 2 out of his last 3 games at home, taking the under feels like a strategic move here.

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Pick History & Track Record

Jalen Green — 2024-25 season averages

Over 89 games in the 2024-25 season, Jalen Green averaged 20.4 points, 4.7 rebounds and 3.4 assists in 32.8 minutes per game, shooting 42.0% from the field and 35.0% from three-point range.

20.4
PPG
4.7
RPG
3.4
APG
0.8
SPG
0.3
BPG
32.8
MPG
42.0%
FG%
35.0%
3P%

Jalen Green — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Jalen Green has played 30.8 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

30.8
MPG (L5)
9.6
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Jalen Green — points hit rate

Jalen Green has scored over 15.5 points in 46% of 56 career games.

o11.568%
o12.557%
o15.546%
o20.523%

Jalen Green — home vs away scoring

At home Jalen Green averages 20.6 points per game; on the road, 20.2. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

20.6
PPG at home
20.2
PPG on the road

Jalen Green — scoring by opponent

Jalen Green scores most against the SAC, averaging 24.6 points per game in that matchup.

24.6
SAC
23.4
PHX
21.5
NO
21.4
MEM
20.6
DEN
20.4
UTAH

Jalen Green — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Jalen Green has averaged 10.7 points, 4.4 rebounds and 2.8 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
4 Mayvs GS30841
2 May@ GS321253
30 Aprvs GS281182
28 Apr@ GS25831
26 Apr@ GS39965
23 Aprvs GS353846
20 Aprvs GS31782
13 Aprvs DEN21222
11 Apr@ LAL15743
9 Apr@ LAC15503
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Jalen Green (Phoenix Suns) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jalen Green is Under 18.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +22.1% on this pick. Their next game is Golden State Warriors vs Phoenix Suns on Saturday 18 April at Footprint Center, Phoenix. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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