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Model picks & player props
Toronto Raptors
VS
Miami Heat

Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 6:14AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

NBA
4
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Miami Heat -5.5 Spread -118

The model graded 4 markets for Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat (NBA) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $185 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win69.0%
The price says54.1%
Best price-118
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Miami Heat -5.5 High69% chance -118
Spread High66% chance
Moneyline Lean46% chance
Team Total High87% chance
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Miami Heat
-5.5
+ 3 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Miami HeatSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto RaptorsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto RaptorsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Toronto Raptors

  • Nate Bittle CDay-to-day
  • Immanuel Quickley GDay-to-day
  • Alijah Martin GDay-to-day
  • Chucky Hepburn GDay-to-day
  • Collin Murray-Boyles FDay-to-day

Miami Heat

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo FDay-to-day
  • Bam Adebayo CDay-to-day
  • Trevor Keels GDay-to-day
  • Ryan Conwell GDay-to-day
  • Myron Gardner FDay-to-day
Availability updated Sep 10, 1:30AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 10 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability10 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

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Betting angles

Markets & form
Total PointsToronto Raptors @ Miami HeatNo line posted

Miami Heat and Toronto Raptors combine for their season scoring; the game total posts pre-tip.

Point SpreadMiami Heat spreadNo line posted

Miami Heat (season record) meet Toronto Raptors; the spread and model cover probability refresh when the game is scheduled.

MoneylineMiami Heat to winNo line posted

Miami Heat (season record) host or visit Toronto Raptors; moneyline odds and win probability refresh when the season resumes.

Team Total (Home)Miami Heat totalNo line posted

Miami Heat averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Toronto Raptors; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Team Total (Away)Toronto Raptors totalNo line posted

Toronto Raptors averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Miami Heat; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Toronto Raptors @ Miami Heat — what the model found

Our model graded 4 betting markets for Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat — 4 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

4
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 4 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 3 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat — recent results

Miami Heat have won 2 of their last 5 games; Toronto Raptors have won 3 of their last 5.

Miami Heat — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L126–127CHAAway
W143–117ATLHome
W140–117WSHAway
L114–128TORAway
L95–121TORAway
Toronto Raptors — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L102–114CLEAway
W112–110CLEHome
L120–125CLEAway
W93–89CLEHome
W126–104CLEHome

Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat — recent meetings

These two have met 2 times recently: Miami Heat won 0, Toronto Raptors won 2.

DateMiami HeatToronto RaptorsWinner
Apr 9114128Toronto Raptors
Apr 795121Toronto Raptors

Who’s out or in doubt

10 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Miami Heat
PlayerStatus
Giannis Antetokounmpo FDAY-TO-DAY
Bam Adebayo CDAY-TO-DAY
Trevor Keels GDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Conwell GDAY-TO-DAY
Myron Gardner FDAY-TO-DAY
Toronto Raptors
PlayerStatus
Nate Bittle CDAY-TO-DAY
Immanuel Quickley GDAY-TO-DAY
Alijah Martin GDAY-TO-DAY
Chucky Hepburn GDAY-TO-DAY
Collin Murray-Boyles FDAY-TO-DAY

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Toronto Raptors @ Miami Heat — model preview

Deep dive into Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors. Find value betting opportunities. Featuring picks like NA props. Check out same game parlay, SGP picks, NBA parlay odds.

Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors : Toronto Raptors Over 104.5 Team Total Points (-526)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The Toronto Raptors have a strong recent scoring record, with an average of 112.8 points in the last five games overall and 110.6 points in their last five away games. Their performance significantly surpasses the set betting line of 104.5 points. Their model prediction of 117.01 points also provides a solid buffer against the bet line. Furthermore, the Raptors' last five games resulted in a 3-2 win-loss record overall and 2-3 on the road, underlining their capability to score high in both home and away games. Although the Miami Heat's recent defensive record is noteworthy, the Raptors' scoring statistics suggest they have a strong likelihood of exceeding 104.5 points, as implied by the probability of 84.0%. Therefore, the bet on the Toronto Raptors scoring over 104.5 points is statistically sound.

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat in the NBA. You may also see this matchup written as Raptors vs Heat, or as Heat vs Raptors. The model has generated 4 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NBA betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 2 meetings on record
Toronto Raptors 2–0 across the last 2 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
9 Apr 2026Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors128–114Toronto Raptors
7 Apr 2026Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors121–95Toronto Raptors
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