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Model picks & player props
New Orleans Pelicans
VS
Miami Heat

New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 4:25PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

NBA
5
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Miami Heat -7.5 Spread -114

The model graded 5 markets for New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat (NBA) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $188 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win80.3%
The price says53.2%
Best price-114
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Miami Heat -7.5 High80% chance -114
Team Total High96% chance —
Spread High66% chance —
Moneyline Long-shot40% chance —
Total Points High97% chance —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Miami Heat
-7.5
-114
+ 4 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Miami HeatSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New Orleans PelicansSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New Orleans PelicansMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

New Orleans Pelicans

  • Bryce McGowens GDay-to-day

Miami Heat

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo FDay-to-day
  • Bam Adebayo CDay-to-day
  • Trevor Keels GDay-to-day
  • Ryan Conwell GDay-to-day
  • Myron Gardner FDay-to-day
Availability updated Sep 2, 4:32PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 6 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability6 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Betting angles

Markets & form
Total PointsNew Orleans Pelicans @ Miami HeatNo line posted

Miami Heat and New Orleans Pelicans combine for their season scoring; the game total posts pre-tip.

Point SpreadMiami Heat spreadNo line posted

Miami Heat (season record) meet New Orleans Pelicans; the spread and model cover probability refresh when the game is scheduled.

MoneylineMiami Heat to winNo line posted

Miami Heat (season record) host or visit New Orleans Pelicans; moneyline odds and win probability refresh when the season resumes.

Team Total (Home)Miami Heat totalNo line posted

Miami Heat averaged their season scoring ahead of facing New Orleans Pelicans; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Team Total (Away)New Orleans Pelicans totalNo line posted

New Orleans Pelicans averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Miami Heat; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Miami Heat — what the model found

Our model graded 5 betting markets for New Orleans Pelicans at Miami Heat — 5 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

5
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 5 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

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New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat — recent results

Miami Heat have won 2 of their last 5 games; New Orleans Pelicans have won 1 of their last 5.

Miami Heat — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L126–127CHAAway
W143–117ATLHome
W140–117WSHAway
L114–128TORAway
L95–121TORAway
New Orleans Pelicans — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L126–132MINAway
L118–144BOSAway
W156–137UTAHHome
L108–112ORLHome
L113–117SACAway

New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat — recent meetings

These two have met 2 times recently: Miami Heat won 2, New Orleans Pelicans won 0.

DateMiami HeatNew Orleans PelicansWinner
Feb 12123111Miami Heat
Jan 4125106Miami Heat

Who’s out or in doubt

6 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Miami Heat
PlayerStatus
Giannis Antetokounmpo FDAY-TO-DAY
Bam Adebayo CDAY-TO-DAY
Trevor Keels GDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Conwell GDAY-TO-DAY
Myron Gardner FDAY-TO-DAY
New Orleans Pelicans
PlayerStatus
Bryce McGowens GDAY-TO-DAY

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Miami Heat — model preview

Deep dive into Miami Heat vs New Orleans Pelicans. Find value betting opportunities. Featuring picks like NA props. Check out same game parlay, SGP picks, NBA parlay odds.

Miami Heat vs New Orleans Pelicans : Miami Heat Under 136.5 Team Total Points (-476)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on 'Miami Heat Under 136.5' points is statistically substantiated when examining recent performance data. Over their last five games, the Heat have averaged 121.4 points, significantly below the betting line of 136.5 points. This trend persists even when only considering their home games, where the Heat's average score is 123.4 points. Furthermore, the model prediction anticipates the Heat will score approximately 114 points in the upcoming game, suggesting a lower scoring performance. While the Heat's recent form is strong with a 4-1 win-loss record, this hasn't translated into high-scoring games, as their opponents' average scores have been around 110-120 points. This indicates a more defensive style of play, limiting total points scored. Therefore, the statistical evidence supports the bet on 'Miami Heat Under 136.5'.

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat in the NBA. You may also see this matchup written as Pelicans vs Heat, or as Heat vs Pelicans. The model has generated 5 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NBA betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 2 meetings on record
Miami Heat 2–0 across the last 2 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
12 Feb 2026Miami Heat @ New Orleans Pelicans111–123Miami Heat
4 Jan 2026New Orleans Pelicans @ Miami Heat125–106Miami Heat
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