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The latest Bet Better model pick for Ryan Pepiot is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts.
On Pitcher - Strikeouts, our numbers say this bet wins about 96 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 96%, implied 87%, edge +9.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.

Recent form on the board

Over 1.50 Hlanded 10 of the last 10
Over 0.50 BBlanded 9 of the last 10
Over 2.50 Hlanded 9 of the last 10

Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.

Model updated Sep 10, 8:24PM UTC
MLB

Ryan Pepiot

TBR

+9.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Strikeouts Over 2.5 -667 (1.15) · $100→$115
+9.2% Edge
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, Maryland · Outdoor
Tue 23 Sep, 10:35PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb batter home runs overs: 25 of 137 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
OUT
Pepiot will undergo surgery on his right hip May 13 and miss the rest of the 2026 season, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
updated May 8, 11:02AM UTC · 125d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
96 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 96.2% · the book's price implies 87.0% · gap +9.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Strikeouts96.2%—87.0%1.04+9.2%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games1/10

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AI Analysis

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Ryan Pepiot (TBR) Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-667)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Ryan Pepiot consistently performs well above the line of 2.5 strikeouts, as evidenced by his last five overall games' average of 6.2 strikeouts and 5.6 innings pitched. His last five games against the Orioles specifically also show a strong average of 6.5 strikeouts. Even when considering his away game performance, which is slightly lower, he still averages 4.4 strikeouts, comfortably above the line. Furthermore, Pepiot is on a current overall hit streak of 8 and an away hit streak of 2, indicating a consistent performance. Therefore, based on Pepiot's consistent high strikeout rate both overall and specifically against the Orioles, combined with his current form, betting over 2.5 strikeouts is a statistically sound choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent form (last 5 games)

Ryan Pepiot is averaging 6.4 hits, 1.6 home runs and 0.0 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.

6.4
Hits
1.6
HR
0.0
RBI
3.2
Runs
2.0
Walks
6.2
Ks

Hit-rate ladder: H

Ryan Pepiot has gone over 1.5 H in 100% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o1.5100%
o2.590%
o3.580%
o4.560%
o5.550%
o6.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Ryan Pepiot is averaging 6.4 hits per game over his last 5 and 4.8 in away games, including his recent form against BAL.

6.4
Hits · Overall
4.8
Hits · Away
7.5
Hits · vs BAL
1.6
HR · Overall
0.6
HR · Away
1.5
HR · vs BAL
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Ryan Pepiot (TBR) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ryan Pepiot is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.2% on this pick. Their next game is Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday 23 September at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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