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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Pablo Lopez is Over 3.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On Pitcher - Hits Allowed, our numbers say this bet wins about 84 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 84%, implied 83%, edge +1.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 7:37AM UTC
MLB

Pablo Lopez

MIN

+1.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Over 3.5 -476 (1.21) · $100→$121
+1.5% Edge
Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida · Indoor
Wed 28 May, 5:10PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb pitcher strikeouts unders: 77 of 124 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
OUT
The Twins placed Lopez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
updated May 8, 11:02AM UTC · 124d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
84 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 84.2% · the book's price implies 82.6% · gap +1.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed84.2%82.6%1.19+1.5%

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AI Analysis

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Pablo Lopez (MIN) Over 3.5 Hits Allowed (-476)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Pablo Lopez for Over 3.5 in the Pitcher Hits Allowed market is backed by his recent performance data. In his last five games, regardless of location, Lopez has allowed an average of 6 hits per game, which is significantly higher than the line of 3.5. This trend continues in his away games, where his hits allowed average increases to 6.4. Furthermore, when specifically facing the Tampa Bay Rays, his hits allowed average escalates to 7. Despite an average innings pitched of 5.1 and 5.3 for overall and away games respectively, his hits allowed remain high. These statistics indicate that Lopez is likely to allow more than 3.5 hits in the upcoming game against the Rays, making this bet a statistically sound choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Pablo Lopez (MIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Pablo Lopez is Over 3.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.5% on this pick. Their next game is Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays on Wednesday 28 May at Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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