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The latest Bet Better model pick for Nick Pivetta is Over 0.5 on Pitcher - Walks.
On Pitcher - Walks, our numbers say this bet wins about 96 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 96%, implied 84%, edge +11.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.

Recent form on the board

Over 2.50 SOlanded 10 of the last 10
Over 3.50 SOlanded 10 of the last 10
Over 1.50 Hlanded 9 of the last 10

Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.

Model updated Sep 10, 9:06AM UTC
MLB

Nick Pivetta

SDP

+11.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Walks Over 0.5 -526 (1.19) · $100→$119
+11.8% Edge
San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs
Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois · Outdoor
Tue 30 Sep, 7:08PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb pitcher strikeouts unders: 77 of 124 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
96 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 95.8% · the book's price implies 84.0% · gap +11.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Walks95.8%84.0%1.04+11.8%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

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Nick Pivetta (SDP) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-526)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Nick Pivetta for Over 0.5 in the Pitcher Walks Allowed market is a solid choice based on his recent performance data. Pivetta has a consistent record of allowing walks, with an average of 1.4 walks in his last five overall games and 1.8 in his last five away games. His averages increase further when specifically playing against the Cubs, with 2 walks allowed per game. Additionally, his innings pitched (IP) and outs averages are lower when playing away, indicating that he tends to struggle more in these situations. His current hit streaks for both overall and away games further confirm his tendency to allow hits, which can often lead to walks. These statistics collectively suggest a high probability that Pivetta will allow over 0.5 walks in the upcoming game against the Cubs.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent form (last 5 games)

Nick Pivetta is averaging 3.2 hits, 0.2 home runs and 0.0 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.

3.2
Hits
0.2
HR
0.0
RBI
0.8
Runs
1.4
Walks
6.0
Ks

Hit-rate ladder: SO

Nick Pivetta has gone over 2.5 SO in 90% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o2.590%
o3.5100%
o4.570%
o5.570%
o6.520%
o7.520%
o8.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Nick Pivetta is averaging 3.2 hits per game over his last 5 and 5.2 in away games, including his recent form against CHC.

3.2
Hits · Overall
5.2
Hits · Away
5.0
Hits · vs CHC
0.2
HR · Overall
1.2
HR · Away
0.5
HR · vs CHC
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Nick Pivetta (SDP) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nick Pivetta is Over 0.5 on Pitcher - Walks. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.8% on this pick. Their next game is San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs on Tuesday 30 September at Wrigley Field, Chicago. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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