Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jared Jones is Under 1.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs.
On Pitcher - Earned Runs, our numbers say this bet wins about 56 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 56%, implied 48%, edge +7.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Under 2.50 ERlanded 9 of the last 10
Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.
Model updated Sep 10, 2:43PM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Earned Runs
Under 1.5
+108 (2.08) · $100→$208
+7.8% Edge
Pittsburgh Pirates
@
Chicago White Sox
Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, Illinois · Outdoor
Thu 10 Sep, 11:40PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb batter home runs overs: 25 of 137 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
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No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
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How often this wins
56 in 100
Predicted
0.9 Pitcher - Earned Runs
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 55.9% · the book's price implies 48.1% · gap +7.8%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Pitcher - Earned Runs | 55.9% | — | 48.1% | 1.79 | +7.8% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 0/3 |
| Last 5 games | 0/5 |
| Last 10 games | 1/10 |
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Jared Jones (PIT) Under 1.5 Earned Runs (+108)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Chicago White Sox play Pittsburgh Pirates in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Jared Jones (PIT) Under 1.5 Earned Runs (+108). That is a Earned Runs bet. It was priced at +108 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Jared Jones's lines for Thu 10 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Pitcher Earned Runs 1.5
-143 best over price · 4 books
Jared Jones's pitcher earned runs line is 1.5, best over price -143 across 4 books.
Hit-rate ladder: SO
Jared Jones has gone over 2.5 SO in 40% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.
o2.540%
o3.530%
o4.520%
o5.50%
o6.50%
o7.50%
o8.50%
o9.50%
Jared Jones (PIT) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jared Jones is Under 1.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.8% on this pick. Their next game is Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox on Thursday 10 September at Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.
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