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The latest Bet Better model pick for Charlie Morton is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On Pitcher - Hits Allowed, our numbers say this bet wins about 93 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 93%, implied 85%, edge +7.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.

Recent form on the board

Over 0.50 BBlanded 10 of the last 10
Over 1.50 Hlanded 10 of the last 10
Over 2.50 Hlanded 10 of the last 10

Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.

Model updated Sep 10, 7:37AM UTC
MLB

Charlie Morton

BAL

+7.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Over 2.5 -588 (1.17) · $100→$117
+7.3% Edge
Atlanta Braves @ Detroit Tigers
Comerica Park, Detroit, Michigan · Outdoor
Fri 19 Sep, 10:40PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb pitcher strikeouts unders: 77 of 124 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
93 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 92.8% · the book's price implies 85.5% · gap +7.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed92.8%—85.5%1.08+7.3%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Charlie Morton (BAL) Over 2.5 Hits Allowed (-588)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Charlie Morton's performance data strongly supports the bet for Over 2.5 in the Pitcher Hits Allowed market. His last five games show an average of 6.2 hits allowed overall and 5 hits allowed when playing away. These averages are well above the line of 2.5, indicating a pattern of allowing more hits. Furthermore, his innings pitched (IP) averages are below 6, suggesting he often doesn't play deep into games, increasing the chance of allowing more hits. Additionally, his current hit streak stands at 12 overall and 4 away, reinforcing the trend of allowing hits. Even when considering his performance against the specific opponent, the Detroit Tigers, Morton's average hits allowed is 4, still above the line. Thus, the statistical evidence points towards Morton allowing over 2.5 hits in the upcoming game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent form (last 5 games)

Charlie Morton is averaging 6.2 hits, 1.0 home runs and 0.0 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.

6.2
Hits
1.0
HR
0.0
RBI
5.0
Runs
3.0
Walks
4.2
Ks

Hit-rate ladder: H

Charlie Morton has gone over 1.5 H in 100% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o1.5100%
o2.5100%
o3.590%
o4.580%
o5.560%
o6.540%
o7.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Charlie Morton is averaging 6.2 hits per game over his last 5 and 5.0 in away games.

6.2
Hits · Overall
5.0
Hits · Away
1.0
HR · Overall
0.4
HR · Away
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Charlie Morton (BAL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Charlie Morton is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.3% on this pick. Their next game is Atlanta Braves vs Detroit Tigers on Friday 19 September at Comerica Park, Detroit. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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