Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Blaze Alexander is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On Batter - Total Bases, our numbers say this bet wins about 55 times in 100. For the numbers: calibrated probability 55%, implied 64%, edge -3.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:45AM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases
Under 1.5
-179 (1.56) · $100→$156
-3.1% Edge
Cleveland Guardians
@
Baltimore Orioles
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, Maryland · Outdoor
Wed 9 Sep, 10:35PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb pitcher strikeouts unders: 77 of 124 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
OUT
The Orioles placed Alexander on the 10-day injured list Wednesday with low-back discomfort.
updated Sep 9, 8:49PM UTC
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
61 in 100
Predicted
0.9 Batter - Total Bases
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 61.0% · the book's price implies 64.1% · gap -3.1%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Batter - Total Bases | 61.0% | 55.3% | 64.1% | 1.70 | -3.1% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 0/0 |
| Last 5 games | 0/0 |
| Last 10 games | 0/0 |
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Blaze Alexander (ARI) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-179)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Baltimore Orioles play Cleveland Guardians in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Blaze Alexander (ARI) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-179). That is a Total Bases bet. It was priced at -179 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.59 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Overall Hit Rate (22 picks)
54.5%
Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.
Blaze Alexander (ARI) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The model has hit at a rate of 54.5% on tracked Blaze Alexander picks. The latest model pick for Blaze Alexander is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a slight edge of -3.1% on this pick. Their next game is Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday 9 September at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.
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