On Saturday 12 September 2026, Curtis Blaydes takes on Waldo Cortes Acosta in the UFC. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Waldo Cortes-Acosta -5.5 on the Line, priced at +110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta -5.5 on the Line (+110)

Odds available at Bovada at time of publishing

Waldo Cortes-Acosta and Curtis Blaydes are stepping into the octagon for a big fight, and it's expected to be quite close. Cortes-Acosta has a slight reach advantage, which might help him keep Blaydes at bay. Both fighters have strengths, but Cortes-Acosta has shown solid form lately, and he needs to avoid getting taken down by Blaydes, who is known for his wrestling. The numbers suggest this matchup is nearly even, but the bet on Cortes-Acosta -5.5 looks promising. One concrete risk is Blaydes' ability to absorb punishment, as he has a bit more durability. Still, with the odds at +110, this bet could pay off if Cortes-Acosta fights smart and uses his reach effectively. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Curtis Blaydes to Win (+178)

Odds available at Betfair at time of publishing

Betting on Curtis Blaydes to win at +177 offers solid value. Blaydes is known for his wrestling skills, which could be a big factor in this fight. He needs to control the pace and use his grappling to keep Waldo Cortes Acosta off balance. While Blaydes is the underdog here, our numbers suggest he has a real shot at winning. The main risk is that Cortes Acosta is a strong striker and could catch Blaydes if he doesn't play it smart. That said, if Blaydes can take the fight to the ground and avoid standing toe-to-toe, he has a great chance to get the victory. It was priced at +178 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $27.80 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Curtis Blaydes: last five L-W-L-W-L, lost the last fight, 27% of career wins came by knockout, 152 days since the last fight
  • Waldo Cortes Acosta: last five L-W-W-W-L, lost the last fight, 30% of career wins came by knockout, 124 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Curtis Blaydes v Waldo Cortes Acosta. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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