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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Zane Duursma is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 73 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 73%, implied 70%, edge +2.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:06AM UTC
AFL

Zane Duursma

North Melbourne

+2.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -238 (1.42) · $100→$142
+2.4% Edge
North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Port Adelaide Power
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sun 5 Jul, 6:40AM
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Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
73 in 100
Predicted
1.0 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 72.8% · the book's price implies 70.4% · gap +2.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals72.8%70.4%1.37+2.4%

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AI Analysis

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Zane Duursma (North Melbourne) Over 0.5 Goals (-238)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Zane Duursma's recent form, he's been a consistent threat away from home, averaging 1.2 goals over the last five games. With an impressive 40% goal accuracy and 2.6 shots at goal per game in away fixtures, Duursma has been actively involved in North Melbourne's scoring opportunities. Facing Port Adelaide, who he hasn't faced much recently, Duursma will look to capitalize on his form and make an impact on the scoreboard. Moreover, his average of 1 mark inside 50 and 4.6 score involvements per game demonstrate his ability to create and finish attacking plays. Duursma's goal-scoring ability aligns well with the Over 0.5 line, making him a prime candidate to snag a goal in this matchup. With a 2.4% model edge supporting the Over, Duursma looks set to continue his scoring trend away against Port Adelaide.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Zane Duursma averaged 7.5 disposals, 0.7 goals and 3.1 marks per game across 13 games in 2024.

7.5
Disposals
0.7
Goals
3.1
Marks
0.8
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (10 Aug 24 vs West Coast Eagles), Zane Duursma recorded 0 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
10 Aug 24West Coast Eagles0001
3 Aug 24Richmond5021
27 Jul 24Geelong Cats6250
25 May 24Port Adelaide3100
19 May 24Essendon4120
4 May 24St Kilda9030
27 Apr 24Adelaide Crows9240
21 Apr 24Hawthorn7011
14 Apr 24Geelong Cats10021
5 Apr 24Brisbane Lions12142
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
13 Jun 26 West Coast Eagles @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Goals Pending

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About This Player

Zane Duursma (North Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Zane Duursma is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.4% on this pick. Their next game is North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Port Adelaide Power on Sunday 5 July at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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