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The latest Bet Better model pick for Zach Guthrie is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 56 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 56%, implied 65%, edge +5.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:55AM UTC
AFL

Zach Guthrie

Geelong Cats

+5.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -182 (1.55) · $100→$155
+5.6% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
70 in 100
Predicted
15.7 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 70.1% · the book's price implies 64.5% · gap +5.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.1%55.6%64.5%1.80+5.6%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Zach Guthrie Over 13.5 Disposals (-182)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle has been on a roll, winning 7 of their last 10 games and pulling ahead by nearly 29 points on average in their recent matches. That strong performance puts pressure on Geelong, who also have been doing well, especially at halftime. Zach Guthrie is a key player for Geelong, and with Fremantle's high-paced game, he should have plenty of chances to rack up disposals. Betting on Zach Guthrie to get over 13.5 disposals seems like a solid choice. He has been involved a lot in games, and given Fremantle's scoring strategy, it could lead to lots of action. The most concrete risk is that both teams are closely matched, which might limit his opportunities. Still, the numbers suggest he has a good chance to hit that mark.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 7 of last 10(70%)

Zach Guthrie's lines for Fri 11 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Disposals 13.5
-116 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 5 of the last 10 games3 in a rowHow many disposals does Zach Guthrie average?

Zach Guthrie's disposals line is 13.5, best over price -116 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 5 of his last 10 games.

Disposals 12.5
-116 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 5 of the last 10 games3 in a rowHow many disposals does Zach Guthrie average?

Zach Guthrie's disposals line is 12.5, best over price -116 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 5 of his last 10 games.

Disposals 10.5
-116 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 5 of the last 10 games3 in a rowHow many disposals does Zach Guthrie average?

Zach Guthrie's disposals line is 10.5, best over price -116 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 5 of his last 10 games.

Disposals 11.5
-116 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 5 of the last 10 games3 in a rowHow many disposals does Zach Guthrie average?

Zach Guthrie's disposals line is 11.5, best over price -116 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 5 of his last 10 games.

Marks 3.5
How many disposals does Zach Guthrie average?

Zach Guthrie's marks line is 3.5.

Season averages (2024)

Zach Guthrie averaged 18.2 disposals, 0.2 goals and 6.0 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

18.2
Disposals
0.2
Goals
6.0
Marks
2.4
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Zach Guthrie has cleared 9.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.590%
o10.580%
o11.580%
o12.570%
o14.550%
o15.540%
o16.530%
o17.530%
o19.520%
o20.510%
o21.50%
o22.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Zach Guthrie is averaging 14.6 disposals per game over his last 5.

14.6
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Zach Guthrie recorded 18 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
21 Sep 24Brisbane Lions18073
5 Sep 24Port Adelaide27093
24 Aug 24West Coast Eagles240101
17 Aug 24St Kilda15034
10 Aug 24Fremantle200102
3 Aug 24Adelaide Crows16031
27 Jul 24North Melbourne14064
20 Jul 24Western Bulldogs19052
12 Jul 24Collingwood18081
6 Jul 24Hawthorn15062
Quick answers:How many disposals does Zach Guthrie average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals 14.5 Over -227 ✗ MISS
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals 13.5 Over -357 ✗ MISS
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 14.5 Over -175 ✓ HIT
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Zach Guthrie (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Zach Guthrie is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.6% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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