Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Zac Williams is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 73 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 73%, implied 67%, edge +6.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:45AM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Goals
Over 0.5
-200 (1.50) · $100→$150
+6.3% Edge
Gold Coast Suns
@
Carlton Blues
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 9 Aug, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 15°C (Aug 2022). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
73 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 72.9% · the book's price implies 66.7% · gap +6.3%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Goals | 72.9% | — | 66.7% | 1.37 | +6.3% |
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Zac Williams (Carlton) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-200)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Zac Williams is a strong pick to score anytime against Gold Coast Suns based on his recent form. With an average of 1.4 goals in his last 5 home games and facing an opponent against whom he averages 4 goals, Williams has shown a knack for finding the big sticks. His solid goal accuracy of 50.0% and consistent shot opportunities (2.4 shots at goal per game) further support his scoring potential. Additionally, his high score involvements (6.2 per game) and ability to impact the game inside 50 with an average of 3.6 inside 50s make him a crucial offensive threat. With the model predicting he will score at least one goal and showing a significant edge, backing Williams to snag a goal looks like a smart play.
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Season averages (2024)
Zac Williams averaged 12.8 disposals, 0.8 goals and 3.7 marks per game across 19 games in 2024.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (7 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Zac Williams recorded 11 disposals and 0 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 7 Sep 24 | Brisbane Lions | 11 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 18 Aug 24 | West Coast Eagles | 10 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| 11 Aug 24 | Hawthorn | 16 | 0 | 9 | 1 |
| 13 Jul 24 | Western Bulldogs | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 6 Jul 24 | GWS GIANTS | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 30 Jun 24 | Richmond | 9 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| 21 Jun 24 | Geelong Cats | 11 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 9 Jun 24 | Essendon | 12 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 30 May 24 | Port Adelaide | 12 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| 25 May 24 | Gold Coast SUNS | 15 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Zac Williams (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Zac Williams is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.3% on this pick. Their next game is Gold Coast Suns vs Carlton Blues on Saturday 9 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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